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Today’s media availability features a slightly less-familiar (and properly masked) face: that of Dr. Josh Ennis, Humboldt County’s deputy health officer. He sat down to answer questions form local reporters regarding the county’s Alert Level Assessment Tool, a four-level ranking of our current COVID-19 risk, based on the prevalence of cases, the capacity of our health care system and the effectiveness of the county’s disease-control measures. 

We’re currently at Level 2, which indicates a moderate number of cases, most of which are from known sources.  

We’ve summarized the questions and Dr. Ennis’s answers below, or you can watch the video above.

Level 1 is listed as the “new normal,” but most indicators nationwide suggest the pandemic is far from over. Do you expect us to stay at Level 2 for a while, or are local trends suggesting we’ll move to Level 1 in the near future? (0:20)

Ennis says that when staff described Level 1 as the new normal, it was an acknowledgement “that the pandemic isn’t going anywhere anytime soon and that we can expect things to be different for a long period of time.” That includes hand-washing, social distancing and face covering.

The pandemic is nearing peak spread nationwide, and since Humboldt is not separate from the rest of the country, “I don’t see us moving down any levels anytime in the near future,” Ennis says. “If anything I would say it’s a steady march toward escalating the disease, because we’re not in a vacuum.” 

What would warrant us moving to a Level 3 or even 4? (1:56)

There are a lot of factors involved in determining which level we’re at. This tool allows staff to “systematically and methodically look at the same things day-to-day, week-to-week so that we’re not missing anything,” Ennis says.

It’s not as simple as a static snapshot of the current case count — drawing a line between 10 and 11, say. New cases are getting diagnosed regularly, but the county’s health care resources (ventilators, hospital beds, etc.) and Public Health’s “effectiveness of disease control” — which involves testing levels, contact tracing and more — also play a role.

Can you explain how transmission of the virus, in addition to the case count, impacts the alert level? (5:05)

Community transmission (when the source of the infection is not known) is “much more concerning than cases that are travel-related or via contact to a known case, Ennis says, because it means that there are “a lot more [cases] floating out there.” 

Does this assessment tool account for the county’s frequent delays in receiving testing results? (6:11)

When the results come in after someone’s had the disease and recovered, Public Health can’t do much to control the spread, Ennis says, so yes, that’s taken into account. 

Mendocino and Del Norte counties are experiencing large outbreaks. Shouldn’t the alert tool take into account the state of the pandemic regionally? (7:41)

Ennis says that’s “a fantastic suggestion” and something staff has thought about. And the alert tool does, in fact, allow for some dynamic ability to move between levels based on what’s happening around us.

When do you expect the “surge” to hit Humboldt, and what do you expect the fall flu season to look like? (9:16)

The simulation models run early in the pandemic are very different from being able to predict the future, Ennis says. The cumulative effect of hand-washing, masks and social distancing is hard to quantify. “My opinion is that we can certainly expect to see a lot more cases in the fall and winter,” he says. 

It’s impossible to say whether we’ll experience a surge that overwhelms health care facilities, like in New York. Cases might go up and then level off, he says. Our local health care system “is a bit of an island,” which means that a surge could potentially have “a devastating effect on our ability to care for everyone who needs the care,” he says.

Can you give an estimate for what percentage of local cases, particularly among the Latinx community, work as essential labor? What kinds of jobs, specifically? (12:13) 

Public Health is not tracking job information, though they’re looking to start doing so. In general, Latino- /Hispanic-identifying groups work in lower-wage jobs, making it more difficult to shelter in place, he says. This group works more frequently in agriculture and construction, putting them at greater risk. 

African-Americans and Latinos alike are suffering disproportionately. “The pandemic has brought out longstanding health inequities,” Ennis says. COVID-19 preys upon people with underlying conditions, which these minority groups have more frequently. “[W]e all need to work harder to try to alter the course here,” he says.