(PHOTOS) Activists Protest Trump’s Inauguration, Capitalism and the Death of Tortuguita
Dezmond Remington / Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025 @ 3:05 p.m. / Activism
Photos by Dezmond Remington.
Activists gathered at the Arcata Plaza today to protest Trump’s first round of executive orders, remember the second anniversary of the death of an indigenous activist and rail against capitalism in general.
About 30 protestors showed up at noon. The crowd was both Cal Poly Humboldt students and community members.
It was a pretty tame event. People made signs and distributed masks. A few speakers made some remarks, but the overall mood was heavy. Attendees lamented Trump’s attacks on birthright citizenship and his promises to deport illegal immigrants.
Special attention was given to Tortuguita, an ecological activist who was killed by police during the Stop Cop City protests in Atlanta two years ago, as well as the ongoing plight in Gaza.
“What can you do?” one speaker said. “We can show up to events, organize our own, and help people. We can take action…all you need are a couple cars to block the McDonald’s drive-through, and they stop making money. Park at the pumps at Chevron and don’t move. Bring a board game! …You can punch a Nazi. Remember, there is no power like the power of the people.”
*UPDATE*
The Outpost has heard that the protestors moved to campus, and may have occupied a building. Updates incoming.
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Trump Order Results in Dismissal of Cases Against Two Locals Who Participated in Jan. 6 Capitol Attack
Ryan Burns / Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025 @ 2:39 p.m. / Courts , Government
The FBI identified Kristen “Kris” Oliver Cunningham (left) and Stacey Lynne Urhammer on closed-circuit video at several locations within the U.S. Capitol building and grounds on January 6, 2021. | All images via federal court filing.
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PREVIOUSLY
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Thanks to an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on his first day back in office, two local residents are off the hook despite pleading guilty to misdemeanor charges related to their participation in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol. The two are among the nearly 1,600 people given a full and unconditional legal reprieve by Trump. Their cases were officially dismissed today.
Kristen “Kris” Oliver Cunningham, 54, and Stacey Lynne Urhammer (aka Stacey Loeser), 55, were indicted last October following a long FBI investigation that eventually led to their identification in photos and surveillance video captured inside the Capitol building the day of the riot.
Both Cunningham and Urhammer entered plea deals this past fall — Cunningham in October, shortly before Trump’s re-election, and Urhammer in November, shortly after. They pleaded guilty, separately, to:
- Disorderly Conduct in a Capitol Building and
- Parading, Demonstrating or Picketing in a Capitol Building.
Per the terms of the virtually identical deals, both Cunningham and Urhammer had two other charges against them dismissed:
- Entering and Remaining in a Restricted Building or Grounds and
- Disorderly and Disruptive Conduct in a Restricted Building or Grounds.
Trump’s executive order grants “a full, complete and unconditional pardon” to anyone and everyone convicted of offenses related to the Jan. 6 siege, including far-right extremists, such as Enrique Tarrio of the Proud Boys and Stewart Rhodes of the Oath Keepers militia , who played central roles in the Capitol attack.
At least seven people died in connection to the attack, according to a bipartisan Senate report.
Urhammer was represented by Heather Shaner, a defense attorney whose work representing January 6th rioters received a lot of media attention, including the following documentary short produced by the New Yorker.
Rob Bonta and 17 Other Attorneys General Sue Trump Administration to Stop Birthright Citizenship Order
LoCO Staff / Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025 @ 11:24 a.m. / Government
Press release from California Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office:
California Attorney General Rob Bonta today filed a lawsuit challenging the Trump Administration’s unconstitutional executive order seeking to end birthright citizenship. Under the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, all children born on U.S. soil are automatically granted U.S. citizenship and the rights and privileges that come with it.
In 1898, the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed this right in a case brought by Wong Kim Ark, a San Francisco-born, Chinese-American man who had been denied his re-entry rights after a trip abroad. In today’s lawsuit, 18 state attorneys general – led by California, New Jersey, and Massachusetts – argue that President Trump’s unprecedented executive order violates the Fourteenth Amendment of the United States Constitution and Section 1401 of the Immigration and Nationality Act and should be immediately blocked from going into effect while litigation proceeds.
“The President’s executive order attempting to rescind birthright citizenship is blatantly unconstitutional and quite frankly, un-American,” said Attorney General Bonta. “As home of Wong Kim Ark, a San Francisco native who fought – successfully – to have his U.S. citizenship recognized, California condemns the President’s attempts to erase history and ignore 125 years of Supreme Court precedent. We are asking a court to immediately block this order from taking effect and ensure that the rights of American-born children impacted by this order remain in effect while litigation proceeds. The President has overstepped his authority by a mile with this order, and we will hold him accountable.”
From the beginning of our nation’s history, America followed the common law tradition that those born on U.S. soil are subject to its laws and are citizens by birth. Although the Supreme Court’s notorious decision in Dred Scott denied birthright citizenship to the descendants of enslaved people, the post-Civil War United States adopted the Fourteenth Amendment to protect citizenship for children born in the country. The Fourteenth Amendment’s Citizenship Clause explicitly promises that “[a]ll persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”
The U.S. Supreme Court affirmed this constitutional right in 1898 when a San Francisco-born, Chinese American man was denied entry back into the United States after visiting relatives in China on the grounds that he was not a citizen. In United States v. Wong Kim Ark, the Supreme Court established that children born in the United States, including those born to immigrants, could not be denied citizenship.
Within hours of taking office, the President issued an executive order disregarding the U.S. Constitution and this long-established precedent. The order directs federal agencies to prospectively deny the citizenship rights of American-born children whose parents are not lawful residents. The order instructs the Social Security Administration and Department of State, respectively, to cease issuing social security numbers and U.S. passports to these children, and directs all federal agencies to treat these children as ineligible for any privilege, right, or benefit that is reserved by law to individuals who are U.S. citizens.
If allowed to stand, the order would strip tens of thousands of children born each year of their ability to fully and fairly be a part of American society as rightful citizens, with all the benefits and privileges. These children would lose their most basic rights and be forced to live under the threat of deportation. They would lose eligibility for a wide range of federal benefits programs. They would lose their ability obtain a Social Security number and, as they age, to work lawfully. And they would lose their right to vote, serve on juries, and run for certain offices.
The executive order would also directly harm California and other states, causing them to risk federal funding for vital programs that they administer, such as Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program; these programs are conditioned on the citizenship and immigration status of the children they serve. In addition, states would be required — on little notice and at considerable expense — to immediately begin modifying their operation and administration of benefits programs to account for this change by February 19, when the order goes into effect.
In today’s filings, the attorneys general contend that President Trump’s executive order is a flagrant violation of the Constitution and the Immigration and Nationality Act and would cause irreparable harm to the states and their residents. As such, the attorneys general seek a nationwide preliminary injunction to prevent the denial of the constitutional rights of tens of thousands of babies born each year in the U.S. who otherwise would have been, and should be, citizens, including an estimated 24,500 children born in California annually, and the disruption vitally important public health and other federal benefit programs.
Attorney General Bonta is joined by the attorneys general of New Jersey, Massachusetts, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin, along with the City of San Francisco.
A copy of the complaint can be found here.
‘Ominous, Weird and Laughably Dumb’: Rep. Jared Huffman Recaps Trump’s Second Inauguration
LoCO Staff / Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025 @ 10:20 a.m. / Government , Politics
After attending President Donald Trump’s second inauguration on Monday, our local congressman, Rep. Jared Huffman, posted the following writeup on his Facebook page (which he lists under the name of his cat, Truman, for algorithmic reasons):
Day 1 of Trump 2.0 is off to a predictable start. I attended the inauguration even though I didn’t want to because I wanted to show Republicans that I’m standing my ground and here to do my job. I wanted all of you to know that too. And I just got back from the traditional lunch the new President and VP have with congressional leaders, which is one of my new responsibilities as Ranking Member of the Natural Resources Committee.
None of today’s events were surprising, but it was still surreal to be in such close proximity to all of those tech billionaires, rightwing gadflies and Trump family members. In the spirit of bipartisanship, I’ll say that Carrie Underwood seems genuinely nice, Ted Cruz and I chatted politely about all the Presidents born in 1946 (Bush Jr., Clinton and Trump), and Interior Nominee Doug [Burgum’s] son is a very thoughtful, pleasant and impressive young man who seems to genuinely care about solving the problem of social isolation. People were on their best behavior knowing this was the calm before the storm, which added to the surreal feeling.
Trump’s speech was at once ominous, weird, and laughably dumb — ranging from dark authoritarian threats he is already acting on (e.g., invoking the 1798 Alien and Sedition Acts to justify using our military to deport people), to things we all know he will never do (taking back the Panama Canal, landing a man on Mars during his presidency), to things that are just bonkers (renaming the Gulf of Mexico). That’s going to be the mix folks — we have to focus on the real and dangerous parts and not chase squirrels.
And get ready for extreme gaslighting to justify unthinkable abuses of executive power. With our border silent, Trump declared an “invasion” to justify mobilizing the military for his mass deportation plan. With our oil and gas production/exports at all-time highs, he declared an energy emergency to justify his extreme “drill baby drill” plans. This is the Reichstag Fire playbook: create a crisis and use it to justify waiving laws, claiming emergency powers, and eventually ending democracy. We’re going to see a lot more of this, and we should know where it leads.
I was also struck by the overt Christian nationalism at every turn — continuous invocations of our country’s Christian roots and heritage, celebrating the totally fake history of George Washington kneeling in prayer at Valley Forge, claiming that God spared Trump from assassination so that he could carry out his MAGA agenda, and that God wanted Trump to win the election, etc. The clear message: God now wants all of US to fall in line and do Trump’s bidding. Between the inauguration and the lunch ceremony, there were at least 8 official prayers from a mix of MAGA evangelicals and rightwing Catholics, and one MAGA rabbi (that is how Christian nationalists’ camouflage their antisemitism, allowing a token Jewish voice in order to claim they are for “Judeo-Christian” values — but notice they never say Abrahamic, since that would bring in Muslims). All of this is standard fare these days, but it still makes me want to burn some sage.
I will need more time to parse and process all of the Executive Orders from our Day-1 Dictator, but all of these orders so far are straight out of Project 2025, just as we warned. Later this week, I’ll lead Democrats into the first hearing of the Natural Resources Committee where we’ll lead the fight against Trump’s “drill baby drill” agenda. And, because we have jurisdiction over the US Geological Survey, we’ll be on point for Trump’s plan to rename the Gulf of Mexico. Things are going to be busy.
I’m ready for all of this. Brace for turbulence. My advice is try to stay focused on things that pose direct threats to our values and our communities. Stay off Twitter, tune out the distractions if you can, and feel free to post cat pictures here anytime.
Onward.
Trump Wants to Deport Immigrants Accused of Crimes. California Sheriffs Could Make That Easy
Nigel Duara and Tomas Apodaca / Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025 @ 7:39 a.m. / Sacramento
California sheriffs once again find themselves navigating a difficult political calculus on immigration as President Donald Trump begins his second term.
They can enforce a state sanctuary law that some of them personally oppose, or they can roll out the welcome mat to federal immigration enforcement authorities whom Trump has promised will carry out the largest deportation program in American history.
Some California sheriffs have pledged not to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement authorities, based on their own policies or laws passed by their counties, and will forbid immigration agents from using county personnel, property or databases without a federal warrant.
Others said that while California law prevents direct cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, immigration authorities are free to use their jail websites and fingerprints databases to identify people of interest.
“Several state leaders would prefer we do not have any communication with ICE, however, that is not what (the laws) say,” said Fresno County Sheriff John Zanoni. “ICE may access jail bookings through our public website and fingerprint information put into the national database to identify any incarcerated persons of interest to them.”
And one sheriff, Chad Bianco of Riverside County, said he would work around California law, if he could, to ensure more people are deported.
CalMatters attempted to contact all 58 sheriff’s offices in California. Twenty-seven responded by Friday afternoon. Most sheriffs who responded simply said they will follow state law, spelled out in a bill passed during the first Trump administration that limited California law enforcement participation in immigration enforcement.
Before Trump’s inauguration today, immigration raids in the Central Valley earlier this month already had undocumented migrants and their families concerned about massive enforcement sweeps on immigrant-dependent industries like agriculture. Trump and cabinet officials from his first term have pledged “targeted arrests” of undocumented people, and view local law enforcement as “force multipliers” of that effort.
California sheriffs could play an influential role in determining whether someone gets arrested and deported because they manage the state’s local jail system, where people suspected of committing crimes are held while awaiting trial. A bill named after a slain Georgia nursing student that is expected to pass in Congress could enhance sheriffs’ sway over immigration enforcement by prioritizing deportations of undocumented immigrants arrested on suspicion of burglary and shoplifting, regardless of whether they’re convicted.
The majority of sheriffs who responded to a CalMatters inquiry said they were balancing their duties with their need for cooperation from frightened immigrant communities. They worry those communities will shun all law enforcement if they fear deportation based on their immigration status alone.
“You don’t know how many calls I’ve gotten from Hispanics in my area that I’ve known, I’ve grown up with, they’re all worried about family members,” said Mendocino County Sheriff Matt Kendall. “I’ve got in-laws through my children calling me because they’re concerned, but let’s look at the ability to actually enforce this crap.
“Hell, I’ve got 50 deputies and I can barely keep a lid on crime in a county of 90,000. How are these guys coming out here with all of this ‘We’re gonna deport 10 million people’ or something. No, that’s ridiculous. It’s not gonna happen.”
Kendall said he undoubtedly has people in his community who have committed serious crimes and are also undocumented, and wants those people arrested.
“If they want to go out and deport all the criminals, knock yourselves out, but let’s pick and choose what’s important and what is not,”he said.
One consistent theme: Every sheriff who responded to CalMatters said immigration enforcement isn’t their job. But some of them went further, pledging not to honor immigration holds, while others said they will neither “prevent nor hinder” immigration enforcement agents from doing their jobs.
Sanctuary law divided California sheriffs
When Gov. Jerry Brown signed legislation making California a sanctuary state in 2017, barring police from inquiring about people’s immigration status and participating in federal immigration enforcement, the reaction from the Trump administration was immediate.
The administration cut off hundreds of millions of dollars in law enforcement grants to sanctuary cities that limited cooperation with federal immigration authorities. The Biden administration restored the grants in 2021.
Several California sheriffs were outspoken critics of the sanctuary law during Trump’s previous presidency. A group of San Joaquin Valley sheriffs traveled with Trump to the border in 2019, where they endorsed his immigration policies.
One of them, Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux, said he doesn’t agree with California’s sanctuary law, and said any governor who supports it should be removed from office.
But Boudreaux said he wants to distinguish between targeted enforcement of “felonious” people, which he supports, and massive immigration raids.
“Now, if they come into the area saying, ‘Hey, we’re just going to scoop up as many people as we can that are here illegally,’ we’re not going to do that, because (we) have a community to serve,” Boudreaux said. “If you can separate the difference between that, you should be able to see what I mean.”
Boudreaux pledged to keep working with federal immigration authorities within the parameters of California law.
“(If) I have a federal counterpart that comes into my county asking for assistance, I’m going to give it to them,” Boudreaux said.
Bianco, the Riverside County sheriff and one of Trump’s most outspoken allies in California, took office in 2019. Now, Bianco said he’s ready to work around state law to step up immigration enforcement.
“I will do everything in my power to make sure I keep the residents of Riverside County safe,” Bianco said to KTTV-TV in November. “If that involves working somehow around (California’s sanctuary law) with ICE so we can deport these people victimizing us and our residents, you can be 100% sure I’m going to do that.”
Immigrant advocates watching sheriffs
Eva Bitran, Immigrants’ Rights project coordinator at the American Civil Liberties Union of Southern California, said her organization would be watching for violations of the state sanctuary law, which would typically involve police calling federal immigration authorities at jails or during arrests.
That’s what happened to Daniel Valenzuela in 2019, when Corona police interrogated him about his immigration status during a traffic stop, then transferred him to U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents. Valenzuela was then deported.
The ACLU sued the city of Corona, which paid Valenzuela a $35,000 settlement.
“Our expectation is that the sheriffs will follow the law,” Bitran said. “We will be watching to ensure they do so.”
In 2020, Los Angeles County banned the warrantless transfer of inmates to immigration enforcement custody. Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna said his department does not honor immigration detainers unless presented with a federal warrant.
Between 2018 and 2023, the last date for which data was available, there were 4,192 transfers of people from California jails to immigration authorities.
But it’s street enforcement that has people worried in both the Central Valley and downtown Oakland, where the Alameda County Sheriff’s Office is already trying to tamp down rumors of immigration raids.
“We want to assure you that this information is false,” said Alameda County Sheriff’s Sgt. Roberto Morales. “This information has caused panic and anxiety in our communities.
“While we respect criminal warrants issued by a judge, Sheriff’s Office personnel do not comply with administrative immigration warrants. Importantly, we believe that local law enforcement involvement in ICE deportation operations undermines our community policing strategies and depletes local resources.”
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CalMatters reporter Cayla Mihalovich contributed to this story.
CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.
PASTOR BETHANY: On Earth As It Is In Heaven
Bethany Cseh / Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025 @ 7:05 a.m. / Faith-y
Dear Christian,
Driving down 101 the other day, I noticed a bumper sticker I’ve seen for years. Attempting to seem relevant, written in an edgy font circa 2002 is NOTW: Not Of This World. We Christians love to say our home isn’t here on earth. We say things like, “Our citizenship is in heaven.” We’ve taken ancient texts written thousands of years ago to a culturally specific people and place and arrogantly assume it is written to us. To Americans. To our time and our place and our whiteness and privilege and religious constructs. And that, because our time on earth is meaningless beyond “saving souls for heaven,” there’s a mentality that earth is simply a waiting room for the sweet bye and bye because it’s all gonna burn anyway.
Many of us have witnessed two opposite, but still damaging, Christian realities: NOTW and 7 Mountain Mandate, or Christian Nationalism. One says hunker down and wait it out. The other says to claim dominating Christian authority in every place of power. Both are heresy and neither was modeled by Jesus.
If either of these realities were the case, why did Jesus heal those who were suffering? Why did Jesus ask people to live at peace with each other? Why did Jesus implore his followers to take care of the most marginalized and vulnerable: the widow, the orphan, the immigrant, the incarcerated, the poor? Why did he insist we forgive each other and love our enemies and pray for those who cause us harm? Why didn’t Jesus seek positions of political or religious power to shift the cultural climate of the day? Jesus seemed to model and suggest, instead, that the love God has for a person could transform their response to themselves and everyone else into a greater capacity to love here on earth as it is in heaven.
Monday is full of mixed emotions. It’s Martin Luther King Jr. Day and a new president will be inaugurated. On one hand, it’s a celebration of a continued longing for justice and the work of seeking liberation. It’s the collective naming of past sins and a hopeful, bright future. It’s a declaration to never go back to days of racism and fear. On the other hand, we’ll be gaining a new president who, for many people, represents the opposite of Martin Luther King Jr.. Depending on many different variables (ethnicity, gender, sexuality, race, faith, etc.), you might feel grief and anger or you might feel hope and pride.
Most of us feel the darkness surrounding us. We have school shootings, debilitating medical debt, the fear of deportation for some neighbors, mass incarceration, climate change denial, fires burning LA, wars and rumors of wars, and your own personal relationship / health / family / financial difficulties. So do we hunker and numb through these next four years or do we name it and claim it in White Christian superiority? Do we need to post the Ten Commandments on school walls and cross our fingers in the hope it will help our kids not kill each other?
Maybe if we started living out the ways of Jesus instead of enforcing our religious beliefs upon others, we might just be doing what we pray for most weeks: May Your will be done on earth as it is in heaven. On earth. Today. This prayer demands we stay connected to those who suffer. It demands we never stop working for justice and liberation for the oppressed. It demands we stop clutching our pearls saying, “How did this happen? How did we get here again?” It demands, like Martin Luther King Jr., though we might not get to see the poor fed, the houseless housed, the immigrant wanted, the families not torn apart, the earth healed, the sick cared for, the incarcerated humanized in our time, we never stop seeking and working and healing and hoping.
We just celebrated Epiphany in the Christian Church calendar. This is the Biblical story of the Magi, or Wise Men, who follow a star to seek a foreign savior in a foreign place. It’s a story of light breaking forth in darkness, where oppressive government powers didn’t have the final word.
The Magi were, most likely, Zoroastrian priests from Persia who could interpret dreams, read the stars, and write horoscopes. They were wealthy and well respected people who sought the gods, recognizing that spirituality could not be contained within one path. The Magi were pagan people who didn’t know the Jewish God in the ways one would think they would need to know. They don’t seem to believe the right things or worship the right way or say the right prayers according to our good doctrine. They worshipped all kinds of gods and would be, as I’ve heard, the tarot-card reading, dream interpreting, incense burning, pachouli-smelling, new age yoga instructors of today stating that you are your own goddess. These are people who live open-heartedly towards spirituality in many forms and this softness of heart led them to follow a star in search of a savior.
This all seems a little offensive to the political and religious boxes I was handed and then expected to perpetuate.
It seems like God isn’t only interested in the Republican or Democrat minivan driving, shirt-tucked-in people with nice marriages and nice kids and a nice 401Ks that indicates a nice life and a nice Christianity. God shines a star above the one overlooked and excluded beckoning them to come a little closer to the beauty of Jesus. God turns the lights on for the Muslim and the Christian, for the trans youth and Southern Baptist, for the addict and the abstainer, for the far left and far right, for the houseless, refugee, immigrant, widow, orphan and for the wealthy in Beverly Hills. Whoever you think of as “the other,” that’s who God is for and invites us to always move with compassion and justice. We are not to get distracted by political leaders claiming you must be afraid of “the other.”
“The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends towards justice,” King once announced. For some of us, it might feel like we’re taking a big step back on Monday, but maybe enough of us can slowly push forward once again to get even more ahead. Maybe this is the time we look honestly at who “the other” is and instead of being afraid, we start working alongside them for liberation and justice, trusting God is with us in this work. Isn’t love a verb anyway?
On earth as it is in heaven.
The power of the people. The power of a crucified and risen Christ. The power of justice.
May it be so.
With (hope, love, and justice),
Pastor Bethany
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Bethany Cseh is a pastor at Arcata United Methodist Church and Catalyst Church. Follow her on Instagram.
TO YOUR WEALTH: Wall Street’s 2025 Investment Forecasts: Why They’re Probably Wrong
Brandon Stockman / Sunday, Jan. 19, 2025 @ 7:05 a.m. / Money
No one knows the future.
But every single year, Wall Street strategists like to pretend they do.
This year is no different.
Yardeni Research summarizes several year-end forecasts for the S&P 500 (the stock market index for the largest US companies) that range from an annual investment return of essentially 0% to 18%.¹
Bloomberg puts together a summary of even more 2025 investment outlooks. They report the overall findings of over 50 financial institutions for the US stock market:
Pretty much every institution warns investors not to expect another year of equity returns topping 20%, just like they did a year ago. But few are ready to call an end to the artificial intelligence-fueled stock boom. BNY believes “AI’s role in the world will surpass that of other technologies that propelled earlier periods of tidal change.” While no one else quite matches that bullishness, many expect gains to broaden as adoption of the tech spreads.²
Last year, the S&P 500 had its second year in a row of being up over 20%.
How did the investment forecasters perform in 2024? Not nearly as good as the market.
Here is a chart from Ritholtz Wealth Management with data from Bloomberg³:
Strategists were nowhere close to predicting how stocks performed.
This kind of thing led Warren Buffet, who is ironically called the Oracle of Omaha, to write things like this back in 1993:
Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.⁴
We still haven’t learned our lesson. Human beings love prophets and experts, especially when they mix and talk about money.
Furthermore, Wall Street enjoys anointing individuals who got one crisis right in the past to make headlines for predicting what may go wrong in the future.
Michael Burry, who foresaw some of the 2008-2009 financial crisis, illustrates this. Since then, he has made several calls about the stock market, that have proved outrageously wrong.⁵
Let’s not pick on an individual like Burry too much.
Wall Street firms, big banks, and individual traders aren’t the only ones bad at predicting the future.
The Federal Reserve is too.
Though they set the Federal Funds rate, they have a hard time projecting where the rate will be in the future.⁶
One wonders how numbers for all the above forecasts get picked. I’m sure there is all kinds of mathematics and data analysis, but it can be curious.
Did Bank of America really run all their analysis for 2025 and out popped 6,666? Or were some brilliant, snarky analysts having some apocalyptic fun while crunching numbers with the biblical book of Revelation over lunch?
Here is the point: predicting the future is hard, so don’t get too caught up with investment forecasts no matter where they come from and no matter how fancy the pedigree.
Jason Zweig, a columnist for the Wall Street Journal, zeroes in on what investors should be concerned about while considering their financial future at the beginning of a new year:
“The beginning of the year is the best time to think not about the next 12 months, but all the years to come.”⁷
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Sources:
1. “Wall Street’s S&P 500 Targets”. Accessed online: https://yardeni.com/charts/wall-streets-sp-500-targets/
2. “Here’s Almost Everything Wall Street expects in 2025”, published by Bloomberg on January 1, 2025. Accessed online: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-investment-outlooks/
3. Chart from Barry Ritholtz, “Nobody Knows Anything,” Wall Street Strategist Edition”, January 2, 2025. Accessed online: https://ritholtz.com/2025/01/nobody-knows-anything-strategist/
4. March 1, 1993. Accessed online: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/1992.html
5. Peter Mallouk on X published January 1, 2025. Accessed online: https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/1874614477666361412
6. Sarah Hansen, “Why Is Everyone Always Wrong About the Fed?”, published by Morningstar on January 26, 2024. Accessed online: https://www.morningstar.com/markets/why-is-everyone-always-wrong-about-fed?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
7. “How You Can See Through Wall Street’s Ritual of Wrong,” January 10, 2025. Accessed online: https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/stock-market-forecast-ritual-of-wrong-add89428?mod=hp_lead_pos11
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Brandon Stockman has been a Wealth Advisor licensed with the Series 7 and 66 since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He has the privilege of helping manage accounts throughout the United States and works in the Fortuna office of Johnson Wealth Management. You can sign up for his weekly newsletter on investing and financial education or subscribe to his YouTube channel. Securities and advisory services offered through Prospera Financial Services, Inc. | Member FINRA, SIPC. This should not be considered tax, legal, or investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.



