Bruce Wayne Shepherd
December 31, 1950 – May 29, 2026

Bruce was born in Winnemucca and died in McKinleyville from bladder cancer that had metastasized to his bones. After graduating from Battle Mountain High School in 1968, he joined the National Guard 116th Armor Cavalry as a mortarman. He was an accomplished horseman and buckaroo cowboy. While working as a hand at the 25 Ranch in Battle Mountain, Nevada, he was featured in the the National Geographic special “The Haunted West.” Bruce enjoyed chukar hunting with his dogs Sam and Barbone, and he knew every fishing reservoir and lake in Nevada and Northern California.

In the early 1970s, he moved to Fallon, purchased his first truck, and hauled hay. He later began hauling freight for Applegate out of Reno to California. During this time, he started a family with his first wife, and they had two boys. In the late 1970s, he started working for United Parcel Service. He retired after 23 years, and his final position was as an on-road driver trainer. He really could teach anyone to drive a truck.

In 2000, he married Kathryn and started a new adventure. They bought a truck and went to work as team drivers for FedEx Custom Critical. The job took them all over the United States and Canada. While with FedEx, he won the 2004 Nevada State Truck Driving Championship in the straight truck category and finished in the top 10 at the national championships.

In retirement, he enjoyed pickleball and golf. He shot two rounds of even par and had two holes-in-one.

Bruce is survived by his wife of 26 years, Kathryn; his sons Sean B. Shepherd (Jacob) and Leonard D. Shepherd; his brother Leonard L. Shepherd (Shirley); and numerous cousins, nieces, and nephews.

He was preceded in death by his parents, Leonard “Shep” and Ila Shepherd, and his in-laws, David and Vicki Christian.

At Bruce’s request, there will be no service. Please consider donating to the American Cancer Society in his behalf.

Bruce will be forever missed and never forgotten.

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The obituary above was submitted on behalf of Bruce Shepherd’s family. The Lost Coast Outpost runs obituaries of Humboldt County residents at no charge. See guidelines here. Email news@lostcoastoutpost.com.

Press release from the Eureka Police Department:

On June 6, 2026, at approximately 7:00 p.m., Officers with the Eureka Police Department (EPD) responded to a reported non-injury traffic collision involving two vehicles at the intersection of H Street and Harris Street. Upon arrival, officers contacted both involved drivers. During the investigation, one driver, identified as Shea Black, 41, of Eureka, exhibited multiple objective signs of intoxication. Following a DUI investigation, officers determined Black had been operating a vehicle while under the influence and he was subsequently arrested for driving under the influence.

Black was booked into the Humboldt County Correctional Facility on charges of misdemeanor driving under the influence and failure to provide proof of insurance.

On June 7, 2026, at approximately 2:00 p.m., EPD officers responded to the 2500 block of Spring Street for a report of a traffic collision involving three vehicles. Initial reports indicated that a moving vehicle had collided with two parked vehicles. Prior to officers arriving on scene, dispatch received an additional report that the driver had been observed unable to maintain a lane of travel.

The driver was identified as Rosemary Jarboe, 46, of Eureka. Officers determined Jarboe was operating the vehicle while under the influence and she was subsequently arrested for driving under the influence. A 5-year-old child who was a passenger in Jarboe’s vehicle sustained minor injuries and was transported to a local hospital for evaluation and treatment.

Jarboe was booked into the Humboldt County Correctional Facility on charges of misdemeanor driving under the influence and felony child endangerment.

The Eureka Police Department reminds the public that impaired driving remains one of the leading causes of preventable traffic collisions and injuries. Drivers are encouraged to plan ahead, utilize designated drivers, rideshare services, public transportation, or other safe alternatives, and never operate a vehicle while impaired by alcohol or drugs.

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“The circle is closing around the fugitive,” Fortuna resident Pepe Matias posted to Facebook on Friday evening. “Chapo the Peacock will be caught soon (I hope)”

If you’ve visited the Fortuna Happenings Facebook group at any point in the last two or three months, you’ve almost certainly seen a post about El Chapo, Matias’s aptly-named and now-famous runaway peacock. Despite dozens of sightings across Fortuna’s neighborhoods and multiple attempts to lure the feathered fugitive, El Chapo remains at large.

The peacock saga has captured the attention of many chronically online residents, inspiring at least two local businesses to offer gift cards and discounts to anyone who can successfully (and safely) capture the bird. One resident even hailed El Chapo as “the bird that united us all.”

The Outpost has actually been tracking El Chapo’s case since his initial disappearance in mid-March. See, we were under the impression that he had been captured sometime last month and launched yet another daring escape. Not so! During a recent interview, Matias told us the peacock escaped just as he was preparing to clip its wings.

“My wife bought me [two peacocks] three or four years ago in Redding when they were just little chicks,” Matias said, referring to El Chapo and his brother, Ovejo. “Usually, they have very good behavior, but [a few] months ago, I went to Santa Rosa to get a little female to be with them. … When I came home, I clipped the wings of [Ovejo], and the female, and [El Chapo] knew he was going to be next. My son got a little too close and scared him, and he flew off onto the fence and then the neighbor’s roof.”

“He was always kind of rebellious and adventurous,” he added.

At least once a week, Matias posts to the Fortuna Happenings group to see if anyone’s seen him. He’s almost always met with dozens of well-wishes and several responses claiming the peacock has either been spotted or heard in a nearby backyard, as seen in the screenshots below.

But by the time Matias shows up, El Chapo has already flown the coop. 

“On Facebook, I’ve seen very good comments and a couple of bad comments saying I should just grab the damn bird and stop the BS … but people don’t realize that I have to work also,” he said. “I work the graveyard shift [at the hospital], and sometimes when they call me, I am almost falling asleep or getting ready to go to work. … When I can, I do rush [over], but I have a job.”

Matias asked that the Outpost extend his gratitude to the community for their part in tracking down El Chapo. “The whole town is helping!” he said.

If you spot El Chapo, Matias suggests luring him into a garage or enclosed area with a little bit of food (apparently they like to eat bugs, fruits, seeds and the like). He was reportedly last seen in someone’s backyard on Lawndale Drive, north of Safeway. If you’re able to capture him, you can get in touch with Matias on his Facebook page — linked here.

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This story was originally published by CalMatters. Sign up for their newsletters.

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California’s life sciences industry is sounding the alarm over a proposal from Gov. Gavin Newsom that would permanently cap corporate tax credits.

The proposal is projected to contribute a few billion dollars in revenue to California annually, but opponents say the state’s life sciences industry would be seriously threatened by having their tax subsidy reduced.

Tax credits allow businesses to reduce costs by lowering their final tax bill (as opposed to a deduction, which lowers the overall taxable income). The proposed change, which would go into effect in tax year 2027, would limit the credits businesses can claim each year. The proposal was designed to ensure “that larger corporations pay a minimum level of tax,” while not having a negative effect on small businesses, according to the Finance Department.

The proposal is the latest attempt to get corporations to pay more taxes in California, where voters will likely be considering a ballot initiative to tax billionaires in November. The life sciences industry, which says its annual economic impact is nearly $400 billion, is speaking out about the proposed cap. The tech industry is concerned. Dozens of lawmakers are urging the state’s top lawmakers to reject the new limit.

“The answer to the state’s long-term budget challenges is not to weaken the sectors driving California’s economy and generating state revenues,” 50 assemblymembers wrote to Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate Pro Tem Monique Limon on May 22.

The current state corporate tax rate is 8.84%, down from 9.6% in 1980 and 9.3% in 1987. California has been either the fourth or fifth largest economy in the world over the past few years; in 1985, with a higher tax rate, it ranked seventh in the world by gross domestic product. Corporations have also been paying less in federal taxes since 2017, when President Donald Trump slashed the federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.

The proposed tax credit cap would largely reduce the state’s research and development credit and would affect the largest corporate taxpayers — fewer than 100 — in California, according to the Legislative Analyst’s Office’s analysis of the proposal.

Rowan Isaaks, the LAO economist who did the analysis, testified at a recent budget subcommittee hearing. He told CalMatters that lawmakers’ questions and comments indicated skepticism about whether the tax credits were actually incentivizing new research. “These companies were gonna do this R&D anyway,” he said.

The life sciences industry is opposed

California’s life sciences industry disagrees, saying the proposal would add to its existing challenges. Representatives say it’s the latest regulatory and policy curveball the state keeps throwing at businesses.

Though California led the nation in venture capital funding for life sciences in 2025, “our global biomedical leadership is not guaranteed,” Sam Chung, senior vice president for government relations for industry group California Life Sciences, told CalMatters. “All these bills take a chunk of flesh out of our leadership.” (He is also concerned about proposed legislation that would change California antitrust law, which he said could have big consequences for the industry.)

Drug development requires lots of time and money, Chung said. If California reduces the tax credits biotech companies have long relied on, companies may relocate to other states with more generous credits, he said. He’s also worried about competition from China, and of some U.S. venture capitalists’ interest in Chinese biotech.

Darien Shanske, a UC Davis law professor who helped draft the proposed billionaire tax and has floated a similar limit on business tax credits, said he doubts other states’ tax credits outweigh California’s — even if the credits are reduced by this proposal. He also cited the state’s other benefits, including its education system, which is supplying the researchers the industry needs.

As for California’s argument that the proposal protects smaller businesses, Chung said businesses of all sizes are important, adding that mergers and acquisitions are the “lifeblood” of drug development.

“Scientists who develop something need big companies’ backing,” Chung said. “It’s a very symbiotic relationship. Everyone needs to work together to get to the finish line.”

The life sciences industry is also facing uncertainty over federal funding under the Trump administration.

At a time when research grants from the National Institutes of Health have been cut or are at risk, “to not have that, and then not have support from the state as well, is kind of a double whammy,” said Tim Scott, president and chief executive of another industry group, Biocom. The proposal would not eliminate tax credits, just cap them.

Scott, a biotech entrepreneur, told CalMatters that reducing R&D tax credits could threaten hiring. The life sciences industry — including biotech, pharmaceuticals and medical devices and equipment — employs more than 336,000 people directly and 1 million people directly and indirectly, according to a 2026 report by California Life Sciences.

“That R&D tax credit keeps those jobs here, it keeps the facilities being built here, and without it it becomes much more problematic,” he said.

The industry report showed that the Bay Area had 107,000 direct industry jobs in 2025, while San Diego and Los Angeles had about 54,000 each and Orange County had about 47,000.

Opponents say businesses can probably afford it

Proponents of the cap point out that what has been a “very generous” R&D tax credit wouldn’t be going away. California’s standard corporate tax rate is 8.84% of a company’s net income; the tax credit cap would be $5 million or 50% of that, whichever is greater. The cap would not apply to net operating losses.

“This tax break in particular is the second largest-corporate tax break (the state provides),” said Shanske, the UC Davis law professor. He said under the current system, companies have been able to “stockpile” the credits for research done long ago to the point where they can avoid paying tax to California.

“If you imagine that there’s a program where the state actually wrote a check to the biggest, richest companies in the state, I think there’d be an outcry,” Shanske said. The LAO analysis estimates that “check” the state writes is about $3.5 billion a year, based on how R&D tax credits currently work.

The May budget revision assumes the cap would raise $850 million in 2026-27, and $1.7 billion to $1.8 billion annually between 2027-28 and 2029-30.

Isaaks, the LAO economist, said a possible alternative would be for legislators to restructure R&D credits to make them more targeted.

What will state lawmakers do?

Businesses wrote to lawmakers that sectors such as semiconductors, software, clean technology, aerospace, advanced manufacturing and artificial intelligence also rely on R&D credits — which has been limited to $5 million for tax years 2024 to 2026, also at the governor’s request because of budgetary concerns.

“The contradiction underlying this proposal is difficult to ignore,” they wrote. “The May Revision itself reflects revenues significantly higher than previously projected, driven in substantial part by California’s innovation economy and the economic activity generated by research-intensive industries.”

In their letter to Rivas and Limon, 33 Democrats and 17 Republicans in the state assembly said “limiting incentives for research and development may generate short-term budgetary gains, but risks long-term economic consequences.”

Nick Miller, a spokesperson for Rivas, said the Assembly is taking a close look at the governor’s proposals. Limon’s office referred CalMatters to state Sen. John Laird, chair of the Senate Budget and Fiscal Review Committee.

“California’s innovation economy is enormously important, but we’re also facing significant fiscal challenges,” Laird said in an emailed statement. “Our job is to carefully weigh those considerations as we work toward a balanced budget.”

Born August 15, 1940 at home in Perryville, Arkansas to Agnes and Clinton Tolley, the second of four children, Shirley died at home in Arcata on May 29, 2026 with the family present.

Shirley’s family came to California during World War II, when her father worked in the shipyards. Following the war they came to Humboldt County, where timber work was plentiful, settling in Crannell. Her father became a timber faller for Hammond Lumber Company and she loved the very rural yet close knit company town atmosphere that Crannell provided. She spoke frequently of swimming in the cold waters of Little River. The Crannell residents were like one large blended family and all remained friends throughout her life.

Education began at Trinidad Elementary, followed by Arcata High School, graduating in 1958. She was an excellent athlete while in high school, earning her athletic letter each of her four years. Following high school she briefly attended Humboldt State College and then moved to Redwood City for work.

In 1963 she married Dennis Pontoni, who she had met while attending high school. Following the marriage to Dennis, which culminated with her passing, she returned to Arcata, where they purchased their home in Sunny Brae. At this time she also re-enrolled at Humboldt State, which was about to become a University, and graduated with a degree in education.

Shirley then began a 27-year career teaching in the Arcata School District — first at Stewart School, and finishing at Sunny Brae. She had an amazing memory/recollection of all her former students and enjoyed contact with many during her retirement years.

Staying active during retirement, she developed an interest in “rocks” and joined the Humboldt Gem and Mineral Society. She chaired their annual show in Eureka for a couple years and was the club treasurer for seven more. While physically able, she loved the club field trips to various parts of Nevada, Oregon and Northern California. Meeting new people was always easy for Shirley, and many of the club members have become close family friends. In retirement she (we) also traveled to any activity in which a grandchild was involved (soccer, dancing, plays, karate, softball, cheer, little league, equestrian, school graduations, band and volleyball).

Shirley was pre-deceased by her mother and father, Agnes and Clinton Tolley, sister Cleta Tolley, brother Bert Tolley, mother and father-in-law Mabel and John Pontoni, and brother and sister-in-law Ray and Pamela Rassbach. She is survived by husband Dennis Pontoni, of 62 years, sons Brett, Bart, Brad (Carolyn), and Byron(Julie), sister Donna(Russ) Daley, grandchildren Kaelin, Asteria, Brooklyn (John), Kyla, Maci, and Bailey-Jean, nieces Dawn (Dave) Pimsner and Hayden, nephews Justin(Miriam) Daley, Riley, Carter, Becker, Sean, Chad, and Shane Rassbach. Also many cousins from her maternal and paternal families.

As a family we will remember her fierce love and loyalty to all of us. Her smile was beautiful. We are sincere in the belief that she knew of our love in return.

We request any donations be made to Hospice of Humboldt (thanks to them for their tremendous support), Humboldt Gem and Mineral Society, or the charity of your choice. Shirley, we love you, may you rest in peace. Family will be having a private service at a later date.

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The obituary above was submitted on behalf of Shirley Pontoni’s family. The Lost Coast Outpost runs obituaries of Humboldt County residents at no charge. See guidelines here. Email news@lostcoastoutpost.com.

Shirley Renee Walsh (née Zukowski) entered into the eternal arms of her Savior on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, following complications from an aneurysm. Shirley was born on August 3, 1955. At the age of four, she was adopted within the family by Frank and Darlene Zukowski. She spent her childhood years alongside her siblings, Brook, Todd, and Scotty, in Forks and Olympia, Washington, where she loved riding her horses, Blaze and Chico, and spending summers picking strawberries in the local fields. Shirley graduated from Forks High School and later worked as a waitress at the Evergreen Inn.

At 19 years old, Shirley was set up on a blind date with Larry Walsh at the Puyallup County Fair. Larry and Shirley quickly fell in love and were married on April 3, 1974. Soon after, they moved to Humboldt County, where they settled into small-town life in Fortuna.

Shirley had a deep love for animals and a particularly soft spot for those in need. One day, after felling trees in the woods, Larry discovered two orphaned raccoons and brought them home knowing they would not survive on their own. Shirley lovingly nursed the raccoons, Thelma and Louise, back to health. The mischievous pair became beloved companions, following Shirley throughout the house and getting into all kinds of trouble before eventually being released back into the wild. Around that same time, Larry and Shirley welcomed their firstborn son, Michael, followed in the years ahead by daughters Rachael and Crystal.

For many years, Shirley worked as a waitress at The Village Pantry in Fortuna. She loved being around people and built loyal friendships with customers, some of whom regularly drove from Arcata just to visit her. Her warmth, kindness, and genuine care for others left a lasting impression on those who knew her.

Shirley was also a familiar presence in local churches throughout the community. During these years, however, the severity of her mental illness began to profoundly affect her life and the lives of those who loved her. Like many families navigating mental illness during a time when resources were limited, especially in Humboldt County, the Walsh family endured both instability and stigma. Despite these challenges, Larry remained a steadfast and devoted husband and father. Even when others encouraged him to walk away, he remained committed to the vows he made to Shirley and sacrificed greatly to ensure she received the care she needed.

Above all else, Shirley loved being a mother. She deeply loved each of her children and regularly reminded them how proud she was of them. During the years she was able to stay home with her children, she poured herself into their lives and instilled in them a steadfast faith in Jesus that would sustain them in the years to come. Though the family often faced misunderstanding and judgment because of Shirley’s illness, her children remain proud of the strength, compassion, and resilience that emerged through those hardships. As Genesis 50:20 says, “You meant evil against me, but God meant it for good.”

Shirley loved to sing and worship Jesus, and the home was often filled with Maranatha! worship music, TBN preachers, and the familiar Sunday afternoon voice of Pastor Jack Hayford. During her more stable years, she enjoyed the ordinary but meaningful rhythms of motherhood: shuttling the kids to activities, spending summers at Swimmers Delight and Moonstone Beach, attending the Humboldt County Fair, and shopping during the Bayshore Mall’s heyday.

Tragedy struck the Walsh family when Larry passed away in 2003. His death profoundly changed the course of Shirley’s life over the next two decades. In her later years, Shirley made her home in Modesto, where she was blessed to live in a safe and caring community that provided her with consistent support and compassionate care.

Shirley is survived by her children: Michael (Heather) Walsh, Rachael (Cheyne) Jackson, and Crystal (Robert) Ralston; her grandchildren Emma Walsh, Elizabeth Walsh, Philip Jackson and Samuel Ralston; her siblings Brook (Peter) Derrwaldt, Todd Zukowski and Scotty Zukowski; and her stepfather, Thomas Anderson, along with many nieces, nephews, aunts, uncles, cousins and extended members of the Walsh family.

She was preceded in death by her husband, Lawrence Edward Walsh; her mother, Darlene Anderson; her biological mother, LaDonna Crisswell; and many beloved grandparents, aunts and uncles who went before her.

While Shirley’s loss is deeply felt here on earth, her family rejoices in knowing that her mind and body have been made whole by her Savior and Healer. She no longer carries the burdens of illness, shame or stigma, but is clothed in dignity and peace. Just days before her passing, Shirley was able to meet her newest grandson, Samuel. The smile and joy she expressed while holding him will remain a treasured memory for her family and reflects the joy with which they believe she was received into heaven. Her children were able to be by her side during these final precious and beautiful moments together.

In lieu of flowers, the family requests that donations be made to a memorial page that has been set up in Shirley’s honor at the National Alliance on Mental Illness (NAMI) at this link. NAMI provides invaluable support for individuals, families, and caregivers navigating mental illness.

The family would also like to express their deep gratitude to Kelli Schwartz at the Humboldt County Department of Health and Human Services for her diligent care and advocacy for Shirley over more than two decades, as well as the devoted staff and caregivers at Davis Guest Home in Salida, California.

A celebration of Shirley’s life will be held on Friday, July 24, 2026, at 11 a.m. at Wood Street Chapel in Fortuna with a light reception to follow.  A graveside service will be held at Ocean View Cemetery in Eureka on July 24 at 2 p.m.

The IPO of Elon Musk’s SpaceX, ticker symbol likely SPCX, has investors hoping that investment returns reach the stars.

It is crackin’ up to be the largest IPO of all time, and the media is going to be flooded with interviews and marketing in the weeks to come before it likely starts trading on Friday, June 12th.

Reuters reports that the SpaceX IPO price will be $135 a share, and Bloomberg reports that the company has “already received orders for more than the shares available.” But that’s not necessarily where it will open. Supply and demand will move the price the moment trading begins.

The Average Joe retail investor will have unprecedented access to the shares. Morningstar, a leading investment research firm, highlights that while “[m]ost IPOs allocate between 5% and 10% of shares to individual investors”, SpaceX has “decided to reserve up to 30% of its IPO shares” for them. Of course, the institutions are there too. The Wall Street Journal points out that indexes like the Nasdaq will pick up shares sooner than normal, but the S&P 500 will take much longer because it is not bending its rules to fast track its inclusion.

SpaceX is not only democratizing IPOs, but it also has galactic goals. Its mission pushes even farther, reaching spiritual and religious heights: “Our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.” (1)

Wowzers.

While the narrator of Star Trek spoke of space as the final frontier, this company tells their investors that space “represents the largest economic frontier in human history.” (2) They believe that they have “identified the largest actionable total addressable market (“TAM”) in human history”, clocking in at $28.5 trillion. (3)

Due to the limitations of Earth, they “must build infrastructure and industries in space, expanding human capabilities to improve life on Earth and to establish life beyond.” (4) Mr. Musk is serious about this, as his compensation increases when the company establishes “a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants.” (5)

SpaceX isn’t just starships. It’s artificial intelligence (Grok, designed as a “truth-seeking AI model”) (6), internet services (Starlink), and social media (X, the renamed Twitter, now owned by xAI — which itself became a SpaceX subsidiary earlier this year). The company frames all these businesses and more under the infrastructure of space, connectivity and AI.

Even if some balk at the highfalutin mission and market, the bullish argument for the company may launch if it achieves some of its aims.

When you own this company, you may own the future in the stars and a wave of new possibilities for humanity, but you also carry the potential for frightful content. For example, some of the AI — which itself is both a gift of technological breakthrough and has some grim implications for our humanity — has “Spicy” outputs “that present heightened risks, including reputational harm, the generation of potentially explicit content and misinformation or deceptive outputs, potential nonconsensual or exploitative imagery, intellectual property infringement, or content that could be viewed as exploitative, harmful, harassing, abusive or discriminatory.” (7)

I don’t tell people whether to buy, sell or hold stocks over the Internet, but here is some research when considering SpaceX specifically and IPOs in general.

According to Jay Ritter’s work at Warrington College of Business, since the 1980s, IPOs tend to pop big on day one and moderate over the first year. While IPOs spike an average of 18.9% on day one, the average one-year return is only 5.6%.

More recently, the numbers are worse over the first year. Since 2011 the one-day pop is 23%, and the one-year return is -1.7%. Probably the biggest concern for the short to medium term investor is that even after three years, IPOs have underperformed the overall market by more than 20%.

Translation: most of the time, one would have had a better 3-year performance buying a boring broad stock market index fund on the first day the IPO traded than buying the flashy IPO itself.

If you want all the details, here is Ritter’s chart (8):

But this is not the average sized IPO, one might say. This is set to be the biggest ever.

What does history show about how some of the biggest IPOs have performed over the first year? It’s not good.

The top 10 US IPOs by size have averaged a decline of 26.8% over the first year. The best performing one, Visa, was still down 6.7% in its initial year.

This does not mean that this will occur for SpaceX, but it does put a cautionary tale on the hype.

Don’t get me wrong. Some of those stocks have turned out quite well over the longer term: Meta (Facebook) and Visa in particular. It’s another reminder of something I’ve written about before: timeframe is a critical part of any investment decision.

That said, investors should gear up for big swings in price for Musk’s space company. One writer picked up by Morningstar noted that: “The critical amplifier is float — at about 3.3%, where Tesla sees 10.0%-15.0% swings on milestone slips, we expect SpaceX to experience 20.0%-30.0% moves on equivalent catalysts.” (9) Are you the kind of investor who can handle potentially massive volatility?

Is the possible valuation of the company at $1.75 trillion worth it? According to Braden Dennis & Ryan Henderson, if you strip away all costs and taxes and focus just on its core profitability, it will trade at more than 300 times EBITDA, which is significantly greater than similarly sized companies like Meta (Facebook), Taiwan Semiconductor, and Amazon. (10) And guess what? As of June 5th, 2026, betting markets like Polymarket think the valuation may be even higher than that by the time it stops trading on IPO day. (11)

One of the biggest concerns for an early investor on IPO day (not an early investor pre-IPO; they are happier than clams and will be quite pleased to endorse it in the media), is that the day they start buying is not the entirety of shares that will be on the market within the year. There is a risk of dilution. A few writers point to this problem:

Assuming that the $86.25bn gets successfully allocated [an extraordinary amount of stock for underwriters to place at the beginning], the market absorption is still not done. A wall of supply is coming from those insiders that bought SpaceX at a fraction of the price.

The S-1 makes clear that Musk (approximately 42% economic interest - with 85% of voting power via super-voting Class B shares) is subject to a normal lock-up but a lot of SpaceX insider stock joins the free float remarkably quickly.

“Early Release Eligible Shares” have not been quantified in the draft S-1 but the lock-up schedule and triggers are set out below and I have seen estimates that 80-90% of the non-Founder shares will be freely tradeable by November. (12)

What might SpaceX do to Musk’s other company — Tesla? Interestingly, there have been whisperings about a potential merger between the two. If the IPO doesn’t go well, might they merge? Does it make sense to put both companies under one roof either way? After all, SpaceX has already purchased hundreds of millions of dollars of Tesla products like Megapack and Cybertruck. (13) Or might they thrive independently and benefit one another?

Here’s what matters. I don’t do market predictions. And with the cautions above, remember that fundamentals don’t always drive price, especially with a celebrity CEO like Elon, who people tend to love or hate.

NYU finance professor Aswath Damodaran, who values the company about a half trillion dollars below its expected price, says, “No matter what your views are about the SpaceX IPO, positive or negative, there is no denying that this company is a loaded bet on the AI and Elon Musk, and while that may concern some, there are others who will look at Musk’s track record with Tesla and feel the odds are in their favor.” (14)

The question you should be asking is probably not what this company will do or not do on the first day or first year of trading, but how this company or any other investment fits into your overall financial plan.

We do not believe investors should be asking what will help you get rich quick, but what will help you live and leave a legacy.

We may indeed reach the stars through corporations like SpaceX. The stock may give stellar returns to its shareholders. But make sure you don’t reach so high that you see stars from taking a risk you can’t afford to take.

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Brandon Stockman has been a Wealth Advisor licensed with the Series 7 and 66 since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He has the privilege of helping manage accounts throughout the United States and works in the Fortuna office of Johnson Wealth Management. You can sign up for his weekly newsletter on investing and financial education or subscribe to his YouTube channel. Securities and advisory services offered through Prospera Financial Services, Inc. | Member FINRA, SIPC. This should not be considered tax, legal, or investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

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Sources:

1. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 1. Accessed online.
2. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 2. Accessed online.
3. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 11. Accessed online.
4. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 75. Accessed online.
5. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 235. Accessed online.
6. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 4. Accessed online.
7. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page 30. Accessed online.
8. The chart and the data in the above few paragraphs is from “Initial Public Offering Updated Statistics” (May 18, 2026), page 78. Accessed online.
9. “Does SpaceX’s Sky-High Valuation Make Sense?” (March 9, 2026). Accessed online.
10. “SpaceX: Here’s What You Get For $1.75 Trillion” (May 24, 2026). Accessed online.
11. “SpaceX IPO Closing Market Cap” (May 28, 2026). Accessed online.
12. “The Physics of SpaceX” (May 24, 2026). Accessed online.
13. SpaceX’s S-1 SEC Document, page F-56. Accessed online.
14. “Revisiting the SpaceX Valuation: A Post-Prospectus Update!”, June 4, 2026. Accessed online.