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California’s eviction moratorium is coming to an end June 30. Since the earliest days of the pandemic, housing analysts have worried about a tsunami of evictions whenever the state lifts protections for renters.

Will there be an eviction tsunami when the moratorium ends? Or a smaller wave? CalMatters asked Carolina Reid, associate professor of city and regional planning at the University of California, Berkeley. The following interview has been lightly edited for clarity and length.

A few months back, we discussed a potential eviction cliff. Are we still headed for that cliff?

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent announcement that California would cover 100% of rent owed by tenants is welcome news, and will help to mitigate the worst impacts of the pandemic on rental households. Depending on the timing of those payments, the ending of the eviction moratoria on June 30 may be less of a cliff than many believed.

But it is unclear whether a) the relief will get to all households that need it soon enough and b) the funds are sufficient to pay back owed rent.

There’s also the question of how long it will take to see jobs and wages back in full, and whether households took on other forms of unsustainable debt — for example, through credit cards or other higher cost products like payday loans — to make ends meet during the pandemic.

How many people are at risk in the eviction tsunami? How much will they owe?

Analysis by PolicyLink suggests that about 900,000 households in California are behind on rent, with an average of $4,600 in rental arrears.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s estimates of rental debt are higher – they estimate that nationally, the average amount of rental arrears (for those who are not paid up on their rent) is closer to $8,000.

In a new study we’re about to release next week, we look at the actual rental debt for households living in subsidized housing — so those who benefit from below-market rents. And even there, a small proportion of those who are behind on rental payments have accumulated more than $5,000 in rental debt. So I think these other estimates are reasonable averages, though of course some families may owe much more.

Our study also shows that families are also struggling with food costs, and may be struggling to pay rent because they’re also assisting family who may have more need. Even though things are starting to open back up, I think a lot of families are still really reeling from both the economic and emotional impact of this crisis.

The Census Pulse Survey results have been quite consistent over time – there’s been some improvement in recent waves, and there is some volatility around the estimates because of small sample size, but in general, about 12% to 15% percent of renters in California report being behind on rent, and just over a third think they are very or somewhat likely to be evicted in the next two months.

What do we know about the demographics of the people at risk of eviction?

The risks of eviction, and homelessness, are significantly higher for Black, Hispanic, and indigenous households – across every measure and in every dataset, we see higher rates of vulnerability to eviction, including income losses and higher rates of rental delinquencies. In our new study, we also see the dramatic impact of this crisis on households with children, particularly single-parent households. More than three times as many single-parent households with children were behind on rent in comparison to households without children. This is deeply concerning, since we know that the impacts of housing instability, insecurity and homelessness have a significant negative impact on children’s health, educational outcomes and well-being.

What are the risks for families beyond the actual eviction process? What are some of the impacts of eviction?

Recent studies on eviction show how disruptive it is, not only in the short term in terms of loss of housing and housing instability, but also over the long term. It greatly increases the likelihood of homelessness, but it can also lead to a cycle of housing insecurity and instability.

It also increases negative health outcomes and increases health care costs. It lowers credit scores, so it can serve as a barrier to finding new housing or employment, and can raise the costs of borrowing for a car.

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This article is part of the California Divide, a collaboration among newsrooms examining income inequality and economic survival in California. CALmatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.

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In a sign of worsening drought, the state on Tuesday warned about 4,300 users to stop diverting water from the San Joaquin-Sacramento Delta watershed, stretching from Fresno to the Oregon border.

The notifications, which indicate that demand from farmers and cities is exceeding supply, are the widest-ranging move by state regulators since 2015 to restrict the use of water rights in a major watershed.

The notices follow similar warnings sent in the last several weeks to 102 water rights holders in the smaller Scott River basin in Siskiyou County, and 930 in the upper Russian River basin.

The Delta watershed’s supply is “insufficient” and “not lawfully available” for users with claims to the water dating after 1914, and those who keep pumping could face a cease and desist order and fines of up to $1,000 a day, according to the notices from the State Water Resources Control Board.

But so far compliance is considered voluntary and there are major barriers to enforcement, according to Erik Ekdahl, deputy director of the water board’s division of water rights.

The notifications come as extreme drought envelopes 85% of the state, and water levels in major reservoirs have dropped far below historic averages. Starved of snowmelt and taxed by high temperatures, water supplies have fallen about 800,000 acre-feet short of projections — an amount that could supply more than 1 million households for a year.

“It’s probably the worst drought in about 45 years in much of Northern California and the Central Valley,” said Ekdahl. “In other parts of the state, like the Russian River, it’s probably the worst drought since the (1930s) Dust Bowl.”

The notices were issued to users whose claims on the Delta water date after 1914 — so-called “junior” water rights holders. That year was when California enacted its water rights law.

But 2,300 users with more senior water rights were also sent notices warning that they might face insufficient water supplies and halted diversions as summer continues and the state’s reservoirs drop even lower.

Many growers and municipalities are supposed to now rely on other sources, such as groundwater. Others can invoke their more-senior water rights that allow them to keep pumping — at least for now.

Carmichael, a Sacramento suburb with a post-1914 water right, “will comply with any curtailments, and that would entail reduced diversions. That affects supply,” said Ryan Ojakian, legislative and regulatory affairs manager for the Regional Water Authority, which represents Sacramento-area water suppliers that include Carmichael.

The Carmichael Water District is looking to groundwater and supplies from a neighboring provider through a pipeline completed during the last drought. The water district’s board is also readying a request for 15% conservation from its customers, Ojakian said.

“Given that Carmichael was curtailed in the last drought, these are things that we’ve been thinking and preparing for over the course of years,” he said.

Others say deteriorating water quality in the Delta will have a greater impact on supply than the notices will, particularly for those with senior water rights that precede 1914 or involve properties that abut waterways. State and federal officials have petitioned to relax water quality requirements in the Delta in order to store more water in major reservoirs.

“I think our harm is going to come not from the curtailment, but from their export of water that should be left in the watershed to maintain quality,” said Dante Nomellini Sr., who represents the Central Delta Water Agency.

Environmental groups, too, are skeptical that the notices will significantly reduce water use — pointing to a study by University of California researchers that reported that the state has issued far more water rights than there is water to supply them.

“We’re sending out notices that you can’t have something, but it’s already oversubscribed, so it’s paper water,” said Barbara Barrigan, executive director of Restore the Delta. “It’s really a paper chase for paper water. It’s not a meaningful action yet.”

State officials don’t know yet how much water the thousands of Delta watershed warnings issued today will save partially because they have limited information on water use.

“It’s really unclear at this point what the outcome would be in terms of the volume of water saved,” Ekdhal said.

Rudy Mussi, who farms on Roberts Island and Union Island on the Delta, said many growers with junior water rights also have more senior water rights they can rely on when the state issues restrictions.

At this point in the growing season, it would be difficult for farmers to stop using water because many have already planted or made plans to plant, he said.

“In order to make those changes, it has to happen early in the year,” Mussi said. “You can’t come to me now and say, ‘You know what, Rudy, don’t grow your corn.’”

State officials have asked those receiving the notices to report back about whether they plan to comply — but so far, reporting has been limited. Only about 10% of water rights holders in the Russian River watershed who received similar notices have notified the water board about their plans, Ekdahl said.

“It does seriously raise questions about how effectively you can manage during drought when you can’t easily and quickly ask people for information related to whether or not they’re going to curtail,” he said.

“In order to make those changes, it has to happen early in the year. You can’t come to me now and say, ‘You know what, Rudy, don’t grow your corn.’”
— Rudy Mussi, Roberts Island and Union Island farmer

The water board’s notices for the Delta watershed aren’t technically legal orders: They’re enforceable warnings. Cease and desist orders could be the next step for users who don’t comply and they could face fines of up to $1,000 per day or $2,500 per acre foot of water diverted illegally, according to the notices.

“Water supply in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta watershed is insufficient to support lawful diversion under any post-1914 appropriative water right,” the notice says. “Diverting water that is not lawfully available for your water right may subject you to a cease and desist order, prosecution in court, or administrative fines….”

But enforcement faces major hurdles, according to Ekdahl. Inspections are scheduled ahead of time and inspectors must catch a water diverter in the act. Then there are hearings, enforcement orders and opportunities for the water user to appeal the decision or even sue.

“If this seems like a lot – it is,” Ekdahl said. “The process is not designed for fast or easy resolution, and we do not have existing authority to require interim or immediate cessation of alleged illegal diversions.”

During the last drought, the water board staff conducted roughly 2,200 inspections over a two-year period, he said. Eight ended in settlements and four in formal enforcement actions.

This time, the water board has fewer employees to conduct inspections. “The drought just emerged so quickly,” Ekdahl said. “We’re not likely to have a bunch of additional people this summer.”

Until the water board receives more resources, the state’s regulators will rely on 20 to 25 workers for the entire state, and focus inspections where they’ve received complaints.

State water officials hope that curbing diversions from overtaxed rivers will protect flows and reservoir supplies as insurance against another dry winter.

“Last year was really, really dry. And this year is even worse. And collectively, between the two, you have this kind of almost-as-bad-as-it-gets scenario,” Ekdahl said. “I do think it’s critical that we start to manage our supplies looking at next year, because, while (the drought) may have a two-year pacing, what if it’s four? What if it’s six?”

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CALmatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.

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On Friday, May 28, 2021, Karen Roberta Kinser, age 59, was taken from us far too soon. She brought so much love and joy to those lives she touched.

Karen was born on November 20, 1961 to Bob and Nancy Bergenske in Simi Valley. After the family moved to Eureka, Karen attended Eureka High school and went on to attend College of the Redwoods, where she met her future husband, Collin Kinser. On March 19, 1983 and March 11, 1986 they welcomed their beautiful son and daughter. Karen’s children were the most important part of her life, and despite the end of her marriage, her role as a strong and loving mother shown out for the world to see. She is remembered by her family as bringing care and kindness to every conversation and situation she faced, finding peace in her garden and spending evenings cuddling on the couch with her kids. But it wasn’t all serious all the time for her, she had the uncanny ability to bring a sassy wit at moments when no one else could. As a daughter, Karen showed how broad her shoulders of support could be as she helped care for her mother in her final years of life.

Professionally, Karen worked in the banking industry and later in life pursued her real estate license to become a property manager, which allowed her the time and flexibility to spend with her beautiful grandchildren. Becoming a grandmother gave her so much joy. Karen spent her days playing Barbies with her granddaughters and running through the sprinkler with them on a nice day. She often spoke about how her grandchildren were the light of her life. She was a generous person, giving of her time and care for others. She was always there for people in need, often calling others to make sure they were OK, or giving them small gifts of support. She enjoyed decorating her house, yoga, going to concerts and spending Holidays with her family and siblings. Karen spent a lot of time with her sister, going to farmer’s markets, traveling to San Francisco, and shopping Union Square.

Karen thought highly of Marilyn Monroe, having many pictures and memorabilia in her home, and spoke of her beauty and strength. As such, the family would like to share one of Karen’s favorite quotes from Marilyn: “Keep smiling because life is a beautiful thing, and there’s so much to smile about.”

Karen is survived by her son Blair (Jennifer) Kinser, her daughter Jessica (Saeng) Yang, her grandchildren Sophia, Leah, Collin and Zyla. Her siblings Nick Bergenske, Mark (Nancy) Bergenske, John (Liz) Bergenske Ann (Dennis) Pfeifer, her father Robert Bergenske, her former husband Collin Kinser, and numerous nieces and nephews. She is preceded in death by her mother Nancy (Alvin) Tompkins, her brother Brian Bergenske and her sister-in-law Cheryl Bergenske.

Karen battled mental illness for many years and it is ultimately what took her life. The family has set up a memorial fund through Mental Health America to support and bring awareness to mental health at mhanational.org. The URL to donate is https://give.classy.org/KarenKinserMemorialFund.

A Celebration of Life will be held at Mitchell Grove in Eureka on June 27 at 3 p.m. We hope to see familiar faces while we share stories and celebrate Karen’s life.

On Friday June 11, 2021 John R. Fletcher – “Papa” – passed away peacefully at the age of 95.

John Fletcher was born December 5, 1925 in Hollywood to Dorothy and Arthur Fletcher. He attended Alhambra High School and Cogwell College in San Francisco. He was drafted by the US Army and served in Germany during World War ll. In 1948 he moved to Eureka to take a job as an engineer with the California Dept of Highways (CALTRANS). Working north of Eureka, he met the love of his life while staying at Klamath Glen, Shirley Scott. They married in 1951 and had three daughters (Deborah, Linda and Ann). Following the death of his beloved in 1984 and retirement from CALTRANS in 1985 he traveled, volunteered with the Senior Resource Center and enjoyed spending time with his grandchildren. In 1990 he married Velna Polizzi and moved to Ferndale, then Florence, Oregon and Walnut Creek, enjoying an active social life. After Velna’s death in 2015 he returned to Eureka to live with his daughter Deborah. He spent his days walking at the Sequoia Park Garden, visiting Chester the cat at the Zoo, listening to his books and cheering on the San Francisco Giants.

Papa was a quiet intellectual with a quick wit and sense of humor. He was generous and thoughtful, loved reading and walking outdoors.

John was preceded in death by his parents, brother James, wives Shirley and Velna.

Papa is survived by his daughters Deborah Chaffee, Linda (Terry) Fristoe and Ann Blackwood, grandchildren Jonathan Blackwood, Shanna (Jerry) Olofsson, Christina Blackwood, Holly (James) Ohrt, Breanna (Brandon) Burras, great grandchildren Leslie & Xander Ohrt, Patrick-Ross McNally, Aria, Elias & Noah Olofsson and Ray Burras. He is also survived by other beloved family members, Alma, Mark and Austri Fletcher, Marci Chaffee and Lenore and Charles Rose.

Papa was much loved and will be truly missed.

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The obituary above was submitted on behalf of John Fletcher’s loved ones. The Lost Coast Outpost runs obituaries of Humboldt County residents at no charge. See guidelines here.

It is with great sadness that we announce the passing of long time Eureka resident Jeffrey Mark Hill on June 9, 2021, due to a tragic accident at his workplace.

Jeff was born in Eureka on April 15, 1961 to Jean and Pete Hill. Growing up, he was a happy, inquisitive, adventurous child and would disappear for hours playing with his friends all over the neighborhood, much to the frustration of his mom when trying to find him. Throughout his life, if Jeff was doing something he enjoyed, he was all in. Jeff loved all of his family, but he especially admired and respected his dad who was his mentor at work and in life.

Jeff, a certified Master Diesel Mechanic, began his work life at the family business, Trinity Supply, with his father and brother. He spent many years working at Trinity Supply, both in Eureka and Ukiah. It was while working in Ukiah that Jeff met his first wife, Christina, and where his children were born. They lived in Ukiah for several years before returning to Eureka after his father’s death. Although the marriage did not last, Jeff and Christina were still able to remain friends. Jeff married his second wife, Gayla in 2019, and they lived happily together until his death.

Although he was a gifted mechanic who could take any motor apart and put it back together again, Jeff knew there was more to life than work. He worked to live, he didn’t live to work. Jeff was a lifelong learner with a “can do” attitude, and a wide range of interests. From electric guitars to dirt bikes to computers, if Jeff wanted to learn something, he would do the research and teach himself how to do it. He taught himself to play guitar, and the amplified strains of “Smoke on the Water” would emanate from his bedroom for hours. He taught himself to build computers, and when he wasn’t outdoors riding his dirt bike through the trees on the hill or driving his go-cart on the track he built, he was playing racing games on his PC. Jeff loved anything with a motor. It didn’t matter if it was fast cars, motorcycles, dirt bikes, go-carts, RC cars or virtual cars. He enjoyed them all.

Jeff was also a fireworks “enthusiast.” He looked forward to setting off fireworks on the Fourth of July every year. He and Gayla were married on July 4, and they timed their wedding vows to end just as the fireworks display started. It was a magical moment on a beautiful day that will be remembered by everyone who was there.

The proud father of three boys, Jeff celebrated each of their accomplishments. He did his best to love and guide them growing up, and as adults, whenever they needed him, he was always there, ready to support them with his knowledge and his love.

Jeff is survived by his beloved wife, Gayla, his sons Michael (Leigh), Andrew (Rachael) and Kevin, his mother Jean, his first wife and mother of his sons Christina, his brother Michael (Becky), his sister Donna, his aunt Marilyn, nieces, nephews, cousins, friends and his faithful little buddy, Jojo. Jeff was preceded in death by his father, Harlin “Pete” Hill, and his little fur babies, Oreo and Honey.

A loving father, son, husband, brother, uncle, cousin and friend, Jeff is loved, and will be deeply missed.

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The obituary above was submitted on behalf of Jeff Hill’s loved ones. The Lost Coast Outpost runs obituaries of Humboldt County residents at no charge. See guidelines here.

It is with great sorrow that we announce that on Saturday, April 17, Sara Westfahl passed away in her sleep at the Ida Emerson Hospice House in Eureka. She was 84 years of age.

Sara was born to parents James Vernon and Ora Mae Whitmire in Woodland, Calif. and raised and educated in Davis, Calif.

She met her husband John in 1959 while training at St. Charles Hospital of Bend, Oregon, to acquire her radiology technicians license. They fell in love and were married on June 12, 1960.

After earning her license, they moved to Eureka in 1961, where she was employed as a X-ray tech at the “old” General Hospital and then later at St. Joseph’s Hospital, where she eventually accepted the position of director of imaging services and was crucial in the design of the first cath lab.

Sara and John raised four children in Eureka — Theresa, John Paul, Kevin and Andrew.

Sara had an interest in art since she was a very young girl. As a first grader, she had her very own colored chalk and a special place at the chalk board to illustrate the different seasons and holidays. This developed into an obsession of seasonal decorating in her home.

As a young adult, she studied art under Joe DeWitt in Davis, Calif. and took art classes at Sacramento City College. She was a member of the Bend Oregon Theater Group, where she painted back drop scenes and special commission murals.

Sara worked in various expressions, painting with water colors, pastels, acrylics and oils. She was also experienced in scherenschnitte, the art of German/Swiss silhouette paper cuttings, and has done designs on commission. She had created portrait silhouettes on site in Ferndale, Old Town Eureka and the Eureka Inn. Her favorite silhouettes were her “fairy” creations with pressed flower wings. Sara was also known as the “Santa lady.” Her one-of-a-kind father Christmases were created from driftwood and gourds, as well as other gourd creations. During the holiday seasons, she participated in the Humboldt Artisans Christmas show at Redwood Acres.

She was a long-time member of the Old Town Art Gallery and past president, as well as a member of the Redwood Arts Association. Sara was a member of the sorority Beta Sigma Phi. She attained her 60th year in January 2020. Sara lived a full and rewarding life.

Sara is survived by her children – Theresa Michelle (Plank), John Paul and wife Teri, Kevin James and wife Pauline and Andrew David and wife Alicia; her brother David Whitmire and sister Debbie Mobley (Whitmire); grandchildren Lindsey Westfahl, Sarah Lee (Plank) and husband Michael, Dick Plank and wife Jane, Jennifer Mason (Plank) and husband Joey, Sandra Parrish (Plank) and husband Timothy; great-grandchildren IIelyn Wentworth, Kayla, Michael Jr., Mathew and Mitchell Lee, Elizabeth (Lizzy) Plank, Jorjah, Joey “Mack” Mason and Angela Parrish; her nieces Heather Jackson (Mobley) and husband Eric, Leigh Choate (Whitmire) and husband Randy, Jenifer Grocock (Whitmire) and husband Jamie, Brian Whitmire and wife Amber and her sister Nancy’s children, nieces Shirley, Shiela, Anna, Lori Jo and nephew Cody and numerous great-nieces and nephews.

Sara is proceeded in death by her parents, husband John Edward Westfahl, brother Thomas Whitmire, sister Nancy Eason (Whitmire) and her daughter Cindy, sister-in-law Kathy Whitmire and brother-in-law Michael Mobley.

There will be a celebration of her life on Saturday, June 26 from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m. at her home in Cutten — 1556 Fern Drive.

In lieu of flowers please make a donation to a charity of your choice.

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The obituary above was submitted on behalf of Sara Westfahl’s loved ones. The Lost Coast Outpost runs obituaries of Humboldt County residents at no charge. See guidelines here.

Bill Sheppard, beloved husband and father, passed away on June 3, 2021 at the age of 79. He was born in Arcata to Jack and Eleanor Sheppard.

Bill graduated from Arcata High School and Humboldt State University, where he received a bachelor’s degree in civil engineering. Bill also served in the National Guard, as well as other volunteer public service positions. While still a student at Humboldt State, he worked as a surveyor in the backcountry of Humboldt County. After receiving his degree, he went to work as an engineer for Winzler and Kelly in Eureka. Bill then branched out and started his own construction company, building and working on many of the water and sewer systems he had earlier designed. Bill truly loved being a contracting engineer and made many close friends through his work.

Bill had an appreciation of old things, especially antique drag saws and old tools. He enjoyed woodworking, long Sunday drives and being at home spending time with his family. husband, dad, granddad, great-granddad, brother and friend; the greatest man we have ever known. He has quietly done so much, for so many.

He was welcomed to heaven by his parents, Jack Sheppard and Eleanor Sheppard Kearney. He is survived by us, who love him beyond measure: wife Myrna Sheppard; children Paul Sheppard (Laurie), Pam Sheppard Getchell (Howard), Holly Sheppard Aitken (Neil); grandchildren Howard Getchell (Darlene), Billy Getchell (Caitlin), Ali Sanderson (David), Ben Sheppard (Hannah), Lance Aitken, Bruce Aitken and Quaid Aitken; great-grandchildren Charley Getchell, Gilliann Getchell, Elliana Getchell, Asa Getchell, Cooper Sanderson and Logan Sheppard; brother Roy Sheppard (Sylvia); sister Eleanor Lendahl; nephew Jack Sheppard and niece Kelly Sheppard.

Our family would like to thank the staff at St. Joseph Hospital, especially the doctors, nurses and technicians in the ICU for their outstanding care and compassion. In lieu of flowers, donations can be made in Bill’s name to the Blue Lake Fire Department or your favorite charity. The family will be holding a private celebration of life.