Yeah, I know, last week’s was a downer, I was feeling pretty grouchy writing it. But looking at the big picture, we’re doing so much better on so many fronts than previously. F’rinstance:

Growth of democracies. (“Anocracy” is a kinda-sorta democracy, “a government regime featuring inherent qualities of political instability and ineffectiveness, as well as an ‘incoherent mix of democratic and autocratic traits and practices.’”) [OurWorldInData]

  • According to Freedom House, not one liberal democracy with universal suffrage existed in 1900; in 2000, 120 of the world’s 192 countries were such democracies. (100 years ago, women couldn’t even vote in this “cradle of democracy.”)
  • Less than three generations ago, the South was segregated and miscegenation was a felony in many states. Nationally, homosexuality and abortion were illegal. (Sodomy was illegal in Georgia until 2003!)
  • Between 1950 and 2000, an average of about one million people a year died in wars and by genocide. According to John Horgan (in The End of War) from 2000 to the present time, that number was down to 200,000 (including an estimated 80,000 in Syria) per year.
  • Nuclear warheads: 30 years ago, 70,000 worldwide. Today 15,000.
  • 100 years ago, 50% of the world’s population lived in “extreme poverty” (less that the equivalent of today’s $1.25 per day). Now it’s around 20%.
  • The rate of population growth has nearly halved since peaking in 1962.
  • Globally, life expectancy has gone from 32 to 68 in the last 100 years.

Life expectancy at birth [Wikipedia]

So for all my doom and gloom last week about our innate self-destructive tendencies, there’s hope. It’s like there are two forces at work, our competitive genes insisting on more and better (and hence, ultimately imploding as we come to the limit of natural resources and our planet’s capacity to suffer from the human blight); and our cooperative culture, in which we can envisage a future in which poverty is eliminated, world population stabilizes (or better yet, diminishes), and we learn to harmonize our actions with Earth’s carrying capacity.

Nature or nurture, which will win out? I know every age sees itself as “pivotal,” but this, right now, really does seem to be a critical time. Let’s hear it for culture! Here’s my “nurture” wish list for 2017:

  • We start actually dealing proactively with fundamental threats such as climate change, ocean acidification and nuclear weapons proliferation, instead of squabbling over how real they are.
  • Congress recognizes that the days of coal and other non-renewable resources are ending, and focuses on such renewable energy resources as solar. (According to the Energy Information Administration, the per-kilowatt-hour cost of a new coal power generation plant is $139.50, compared to $66.30 for solar power.)
  • The incoming President sets his sights high: the end of war. (Now there’s a legacy!) He starts off by reducing the U.S. defense budget by 50% (don’t worry, that still leaves us spending more on our military than Russia and China combined); puts his proven negotiating skills to work, helped by his bestie Vladimir Putin, taking bold steps in the Middle East to bring about peace in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria; and, using the threat of cutting off our annual $3 billion bankrolling of Israel, coerces that country to come to a win-win accommodation with Palestine.

After that, it’s downhill all the way.

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Barry Evans gave the best years of his life to civil engineering, and what thanks did he get? In his dotage, he travels, kayaks, meditates and writes for the Journal and the Humboldt Historian. He sucks at 8 Ball. Buy his Field Notes anthologies at any local bookstore. Please.