The hostages have come home, the prisoners have been released, the military is pulling back, humanitarian aid is starting to come in.

Everyone — or, I dunno, maybe most everyone? — is happy to see two years of this come to an end. For now.

We can acknowledge, you and I, that we know next to nothing about the terms of the deal, nor about the motivations of the people who organized it and agreed to it, nor about the likelihood of those people carrying out what they agreed to.

If we’re being completely honest — you and I and 95 percent of the rest of the people who read this — we have only the most cursory, textbook understanding of the history of the region.

Still, we all of us have spent a certain number of years on Earth, and those years have made us, to varying degrees, wary. Or skeptical. Or cynical. It’s a 20-point plan. There are still a lot of points to get to, some of them years in the future.

How long do you think this peace deal will hold?