Hydrologic Outlook

From the National Weather Service
STARTED:Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023 @ 4:24 p.m.
ENDED:Monday, Jan. 2, 2023 @ 5 a.m.
URGENCY:Future
AREAS:Humboldt, CA; Lake, CA; Mendocino, CA; Trinity, CA

DESCRIPTION

* WHAT…A weak weather system on Monday will bring light rain and mountain snow to the region with generally 0.20-0.40 of liquid equivalent precipitation expected. Elevations as low as 2000 feet could see snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. Another system may bring additional very light rain on Tuesday. No flooding is anticipated through Tuesday, but this rain will keep soils saturated. A much more potent storm system will arrive on Wednesday as another atmospheric river impacts the region. This system will likely target the heaviest rainfall across the southern half of the forecast area in southern Humboldt, southern Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake Counties. Widespread rain of 2 to 4 inches is currently forecast with higher amounts in some of the favored terrain. This will once again bring the potential for small stream and main stem river flooding with saturated soils across the region. The California Nevada River Forecast Center is indicating the potential for the Navarro River and Russian River at Hopland both to approach or exceed flood stage while the Mad River and Eel River at Fernbridge are also predicted to reach Monitor Stage. Additional rainfall is expected beyond Thursday as more systems impact the region with the chance of additional periods of heavy rainfall into early next week.

* WHERE…The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur over southern Humboldt, southern Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake Counties where flooding is most likely.

* WHEN…Wednesday into Wednesday night will see the heaviest rain with flood impacts likely lingering through Thursday. Long range models suggest more chances for heavy rain into early next week.

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