No one much talks about it, at least not in our official organs of communication, but leading indicators show that the Humboldt County economy is headed toward crisis. The value of our biggest export product has been falling steadily for years, but in the last couple of months it has absolutely plummeted. According to about a dozen well-placed informants, producers of good ol’ Emerald Triangle outdoor weed now count themselves lucky if they can get $1,000 per pound for last fall’s crop. Indoor growers, with their secret laboratories and chemical stockpiles, have it better, but not by much. All in all, wholesale marijuana prices haven’t been this low since the 1970s. When inflation is taken into account, maybe they’ve never been this low at all.

If you’re in the mood to gloat – if you’re a marijuana consumer, say, rather than a producer – you can dust off an old Churchillian wheeze and spruce it up for the occasion: “You had a choice between dishonor and poverty. You chose dishonor, and you will have poverty.”

And hey, you know what? The gloaters wouldn’t be wrong. Last year there were plenty of people, down in Southern Humboldt and elsewhere, who were making the case that things were headed this way whether Prop. 19 was successful or not. The region gave legalization the thumbs-down anyway, with SoHum cravenly leading the charge. If a couple of our citizens are murdered every season, and a few more sent to prison, apparently that’s a price we’re willing to pay to keep the black market black a little while longer, to keep the massive government subsidy known as prohibition in place as long as possible.

Let’s put all that behind us, though, because we have serious business to attend to. Humboldt County has surfed the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath fairly creditably, all things considered, but the wholesale cratering of our most important commodity product is far, far more serious. Thankfully, we’ve gotten to the point where we can all discuss this like adults, at least in the business community. You’d have to search long and hard, nowadays, to find a local shopkeep who doesn’t understand that his livelihood is yoked, to some degree, to the freaks and outlaws up in the hills.

For the moment, the question is this: Is this a temporary or permanent phenomenon? One theory I heard was that perhaps growers statewide put in massive crops last year in hopes of cashing out before 19, leading to today’s glut. If this were indeed the case, then some percentage of the participants in the market would therefore up sticks and head off toward more promising pastures. Supply would fall, the market would correct itself, and from the heavens Adam Smith would smile down upon the scene and offer his blessing.

What if this were not the case, though? What if $1,000 per pound is the new normal? Since market prices are determined almost entirely by the level of legal persecution brought against manufacturers, and since that level of such persecution continues to drop, this is not an unreasonable theory. No one is afraid anymore. In the last few weeks, the business news wires have been choked with stories about Wall Street and Silicon Alley suits elbowing their way into the weed scene. Scarcity, and the advantages it brings, is rapidly becoming a thing of the past.

One of the first places you might expect to see impact is in the price of rural real estate. An informant told me that many people in the hills were looking to dump their places and get the hell out of the business. But George Rolff of Shelter Cove’s Country Real Estate said last week that such has not been his experience – yet. Despite the current marijuana bust, which he acknowledged, and despite land prices plummeting generally, many rural land owners are holding on for recovery. “The evaluation has not stayed high, but people’s asking prices are staying high,” Rolff said. “They’ve not woken up and seen the light.”

Luck to them. Sorry to report it, though, but this is only the most consequential reason to be bearish on Humboldt County right now. Also: Airlines are pulling out. The state of California is going to deliver drastic austerity measures in the next budget. The most valuable use we can find for our timber, apparently, is in the form of raw logs shipped directly to Asia.

Dark days ahead.