There was a time when the Ottoman Turks were famously dubbed by Western leaders as “the sick man of Europe.”

This label, which alluded to the swift and terminal decline that engulfed the once-proud Ottomans in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, rankled for years, even decades afterward. Even after the new republic modernized under the leadership of M. Kemal Ataturk, the Turk seemed forever destined to linger in the backwater of current affairs, a beggar at Europe’s back porch.

When the Eurozone crisis hit a few years ago, spreading its tentacles from Ireland to Portugal to its long-testy neighbor Greece, Turks could indulge in a bit of schedenfruede: Now it was Turkey’s time to be in the sun.

Well, as they say in Istanbul, don’t trust the weather. Things change fast.

This past week has seen some strange and remarkable events. Scores of people – including sons of high-ranking government officials, one of the country’s top builders, and the general manager Halkbank — have been detained in a massive corruption probe. In the same week, dozens of policemen working on the investigation have been sacked.

At the center of the storm lays what appears to be a power struggle within the country’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, setting the stage for a showdown of sorts between Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and a powerful conservative religious cleric, Fethullah Gulen, who lives in retirement in — of all places — Pennsylvania, USA.

When the arrests began — a shockingly swift operation — it seemed almost surreal. “My God, it’s unbelievable,” said my girlfriend, Ozge, as we watched the live footage on Turkish TV, showing various sundry people, some of them covering their heads, being whisked away in handcuffs.

Police reportedly confiscated some $4.5 million in cash stuffed in shoe boxes during a raid to the Halkbank general manager Suleyman Alan’s home. Police allege the money came from Iran in the form of bribes. News reports have suggested that the money was used to help Iranian businessmen (remember economic sanctions have put severe restrictions on Iran) obtain Turkish passports, and other favours.

Also among those detained were the sons of the Interior Department minister, the Economy Minister and the Minister for the Environment .

These arrests, a result of a second probe, stem from alleged bribery and questionable building contracts in the country’s booming construction sector, allegations that also engulfed the mayor of Istanbul’s historic Fatih District. For instance, bids submitted by competing companies for government projects are said to have been “leaked,” allowing the favoured company to adjust their bid accordingly.

All of this, which I very briefly summarize, has taken the country completely by surprise. The AK Party has ruled the country for the past decade, ever since a 2001 economic crisis led to near-crippling inflation and devaluation of the Turkish lira, and toppling the then-ruling Republican People’s Party, or CHP, from power.

AK Party, and in particular, Prime Minister Erdogan, came under fire this past summer when police were accused of using excessive force against protesters over the government’s plans to develop Gezi Park near Taksim Square in Istanbul. Erdogan dismissed the protesters as “çapulcu” or “marauders.” Dozens were arrested for taking part in the demonstrations, which drew worldwide attention (see Letter from Istanbul: The Taksim Square Protests).

But despite the worldwide attention, and general sympathy for the protesters, Erdogan and his party appeared to weather the storm.

This past week has also seen its share of protests, including one attended by several hundred in my neighborhood of Kadikoy, on Istanbul’s Asian side. The protesters marched past a Halkbank office, waving signs and banners. Many called on the country’s leaders to protect Istanbul’s parks and historic areas from the greed and corruption of developers and politicians.

Meanwhile, the ongoing scandal — the largest corruption probe in Turkey’s history — may prove a kind of turning point, both for Erdogan and his ruling AK Party. Erdogan has reacted curiously, calling the probe a “dirty” action, a “plot” by outsiders. He even openly accused a U.S. ambassador of being somehow being involved, a charge the ambassador emphatically denied.

Turks, meanwhile, have reacted to the past week’s events with shock and rising anger.

“I didn’t sympathize with the Gezi Park protesters,” one young Turkish man, an engineer, said one evening as we sat with a group of friends. “But this (scandal) is different.” He was particularly enraged by the Halkbank bribery allegations because he banks there.

“That’s my money they’re playing around with,” he said, his eyes flashing.

Still, for others, the corruption scandal comes as little surprise.

“It’s like in the movie ‘Casablanca,’” my student Mehmet said, recalling the famous Claude Raines line about being, “Shocked! Shocked!” to find that gambling is going on in the casino. Mehmet is a human resources manager with one of the country’s leading Internet providers. “You can’t tell me that for all this time nobody knew that these things were happening, and now suddenly it comes out.”

According to Turkish news reports, the roots of the controversy reach back to the past year or so, when Erdogan called for a ban on so-called dershanes, or study halls, many of which have been funded by the conservative cleric Gulen. (As an aside, many of Gulen’s critics in Turkey have long harboured suspicions that he fosters a hidden agenda to restore Turkey to a more Islamic-style state, as seen, for example, of the growth of his “religious schools.”)

So the story goes, these critics allege that Gulen supporters, known here has the Hizmet Movement, which occupy posts in the government, the judiciary and police forces, orchestrated the corruption probe. Meanwhile, Erdogan supporters, so it seems anyway, fired swiftly back. As I said, numerous police officials have been sacked, including the Istanbul chief of police, who was reassigned.

All of this has happened so fast, and the situation continues to evolve in a very disjointed, fluid, even byzantine manner, so that it’s difficult to get a pulse. For instance, on Monday, the news reported from now on, journalists will be barred from police stations. Police reportedly said the measure was taken to protect the “integrity” of the ongoing investigations. All journalists were told to hand in their police press passes.

“How am I supposed to make a living?” complained one veteran Turkish crime reporter. “Am I supposed to just wait for the police to call me when something happens?”

Such a move should not seem that strange, since Turkey consistently ranks among the top countries for jailing journalists. Still, it would seem that transparency would be important for all sides at this point.

On many Turks’ minds is the troubling thought that the scandal could lead to an even bigger crisis within the country. Some even fear it could lead to a civil war, although at this point that prospect seems unlikely. Over the past decade, Turkey has enjoyed an economic boom that has been the envy of much of the developing world. The 2009 economic crisis that crippled the United States and much of the West left Turkey largely unscathed, bolstered by its strong construction, energy and manufacturing sectors.

The Syrian conflict, which since it began has left more than a quarter million refugees in Turkey, continues to pose problems and questions, but thus far, Turkey has managed to remain largely out of the conflict, for better or worse.

However, this latest scandal could prove to be the greatest test Erdogan and his party have faced — a war from within. The local and district elections, just a few months away, may provide the first glimpse of how great — or little — the controversy will play in (re?)shaping Turkey’s political landscape. As a NATO ally, a key player in the region, Turkey’s fate should remain a close concern of the West, despite its tendency to waver at times. Meanwhile, the consequences of this mess, whatever they may be, are likely to linger for years.

Certainly, Erdogan and his ruling AK Party will want the scandal to pass quickly, and his rivals will want it capitalize on it to gain ground. Troubling issues remain. For one, as a journalist, I take issue with being denied basic access to the police. Also, judging from some of the allegations that have emerged, including Erdogan’s accusation that the scandal is a “plot” by outsiders, there seems to be a lingering tendency, almost a de facto turn of logic, by the country’s leaders to dismiss every alleged misdeed as a plot to overthrow the government, and to jail all alleged conspirators, silence all dissent.

If that indeed is the case, then the original “sick man of Europe” may be back. Let’s hope not.

James Tressler was an award-winning political reporter for The Times-Standard. His latest book, “Lost Coast D.A,” is available at Lulu.com. He lives in Istanbul.