Saying that less than 10 percent of Covid transmission occurs outdoors is akin to saying that sharks attack fewer than 20,000 swimmers a year. (The actual worldwide number is around 150.) It’s both true and deceiving.

— David Leonhardt, The New York Times

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I see them everyday, on my 10,000-step brisk-walking exercise routine: masks! They’re walking and running and cycling — wearing masks, prolonging the mistaken notion that it’s unsafe to be outside without one.

I know, I just wrote about this — actually 12 columns back, Exercise in the Time of Covid, published here on February 21 last. Somehow the message hasn’t gotten through to many folks, and I think it’s sufficiently important to restate: Assuming you’re not in someone else’s face, you don’t need to mask up outside. You’re not doing yourself or anyone else any favors. If anything, you’re discouraging people who would otherwise be out there walking, running, exercising. Mainly though, if we thought in terms of “masks inside, no masks outside,” we — as a community — would be much more likely to wear them in stores and other times when we’re around people) knowing that we can relax and breathe freely as soon as we step into the outside air.

Trouble is, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is still putting out alarmingly conservative statements regarding outdoors transmission: “Less than 10 percent of documented transmission in many studies has occurred outdoors,” CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said on April 25.

So, is that “less than 10 percent” like, nine percent? Five percent? In fact, the actual number of outdoor transmissions is far less — probably more like 0.1 percent, based on this paper published on the medRχiv website. Here’s an excerpt: “…out of a total of 1576 superspreading event entries, 1493 (94.7%) were classified as ‘Indoor,’ 63 were ‘Indoor/Outdoor,’ 4 were ‘Outdoor,’ and the remainder were ‘unknown.’”

So why is the CDC, with its “less than 10%” statement, being so cautious about the really remote possibility of outside transmission? It’s certainly correct — it could have said, “less than 50%” and still be technically correct — but by erring on this extreme side of caution, it’s discouraging playground use, bike riding, running and plain walking — just being outside! — by setting up this bogeyman of potentially risky exercise and play in the fresh air.

Turns out, much of the CDC supporting data came from a study in which of 10,926 Covid cases, 95 were classified as being outdoor infections, all from Singapore construction sites. But that’s less than 1% — and anyway, what the study classified as “outdoors” was largely inside the shell of a skyscraper project. Meanwhile, an Irish study put the “outdoor transmission” cases at 0.1%, while a Chinese study of 7,324 cases of Covid found that just one of those was transmitted outdoors. (That’s 0.01%.)

Want more? Here’s The New York Times’ David Leonhardt’s take on why the CDC exaggerated the outdoors transmission risk.

I was going to end on a rant, but it turns out Maine Senator Susan Collins did it for me, addressing Dr. Walensky at a Senate Hearing last week: “Here we have unnecessary barriers to reopening schools, re-exaggerating the risk of outdoor transmission, and unworkable restrictions on summer camps. Why does this matter? It matters because it undermines public confidence in your recommendations.”

Meanwhile, winter’s not that far ahead: winter, the time of staying inside, with all the dangers posed by a hugely contagious respiratory virus, especially the new varieties. Please folks, if you’re not vaccinated, do it for the rest of us, if not yourselves. Call 441-5000. Meanwhile, Covid’s taken a toll on all of us, physically and mentally. Whether or not you’ve had your shots, it’s time to take advantage of the weather and get outside — maskless!