Two months ago polls suggested Gov. Gavin Newsom wouldn’t have to do much to persuade voters to pass his marquee mental health measure. His plan, a $6.4 billion bond that would pay for the construction of new treatment beds and housing, had support from about two-thirds of voters.

But now, with voters casting ballots and a more recent poll showing declining enthusiasm for his proposal, Newsom is barnstorming the state to talk up Proposition 1.

“Polling on this has been overwhelmingly positive, but polls don’t vote, people vote,” Newsom said Thursday during a get-out-the-vote rally in San Diego. “We’re here to get people to the polls.”

The rally with the union United Domestic Workers, Attorney General Rob Bonta and other elected Democrats was the first of four planned campaign events by Newsom leading up to Election Day on March 5. Other stops include Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Statewide, about 10% of all ballots have been returned by mail just four days ahead of the election. Analysts say the trend indicates Tuesday will see the lowest voter turnout for a presidential primary election in recent state history.

Support for Prop. 1 dropped from 68% to 59% between December and February among likely voters, a nine-point difference, according to two polls published by the Public Policy Institute of California. Democrats and Independent voters were overwhelmingly supportive of the measure while most Republican voters indicated they would vote against it.

The measure needs 51% of the vote to pass.

Prop. 1 is a two-part ballot initiative to restructure California’s mental health and substance abuse treatment system. It includes the bond to build treatment facilities and permanent supportive housing for people with mental health and addiction challenges. It also would change a special wealth tax known as the Mental Health Services Act by requiring counties to spend 30% of that revenue on housing instead of on other services.

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s mental health policies

Newsom has pitched Prop. 1 to voters as a way to address the state’s entrenched homelessness crisis and vastly increase capacity for acute mental health and drug treatment. His Yes on Prop. 1 campaign amassed a war chest of $14.4 million, gaining support from law enforcement unions, large health care organizations, big city mayors and the mental health advocacy organization NAMI California.

California has failed for decades to make good on its promise of expanding community-based mental health treatment after closing nearly all state psychiatric hospitals in the 1960s. Prop. 1 is an opportunity for voters to rectify that failure, Newsom said.

Newsom has signed several laws during his tenure meant to address the mental health crisis playing out on California streets, including one last year loosening restrictions on involuntary treatment.

“People get it, and they want to get something done,” Newsom said to a gathering of about 100 union workers and first responders. “They don’t want to talk about this problem anymore. They want to see progress.”

The Yes on Prop. 1 campaign estimates that 6,800 treatment slots and 4,350 housing units could be constructed with the money raised by the bond.

Prop. 1 opponents point to deficit

Opponents represent smaller mental health groups, disability advocates and current users of county mental health programs who fear budget cuts if the measure passes. They attribute the proposition’s decreased support in part to concerns over the state’s soaring deficit.

The nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office projected in early February that the state deficit would grow to $73 billion, $15 billion higher than last month’s projection.

A bond allows the state to borrow money and repay it over time. The Legislative Analyst’s Office estimates that Prop. 1 would cost the state $310 million annually over the next three decades, totalling $9.4 billion.

“Informed voters know that means now is a terrible time for Prop. 1,” Paul Simmons, executive director of Californians Against Prop. 1, said in a recent campaign statement.

Newsom has previously disputed how severe the state’s deficit will be come June, when lawmakers are legally required to pass a budget. During Thursday’s rally, Newsom hinted his updated budget proposal would draw from the state’s reserves. In January, his administration estimated the state held about $38 billion in reserves.

“We’ve never had more reserves in our state’s history, so that issue will be resolved in a matter of months,” Newsom said.

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