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New federal regulations could leave California with 61,000 fewer truck drivers as the Trump administration bans certain immigrants from operating large vehicles. With fewer truck drivers on the road, consumers may see higher shipping costs, too.

Following an executive order from President Donald Trump in April, U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy began cracking down on truck drivers by creating new regulations that prevent refugees, asylum seekers, and those with Deferred Action for Child Arrivals, or DACA, from holding commercial trucking licenses. The administration is also increasing enforcement to penalize those who have limited English proficiency.

California is the main target of both actions, sparking a feud between Duffy and Gov. Gavin Newsom.

“Licenses to operate a massive, 80,000-pound truck are being issued to dangerous foreign drivers — often times (sic) illegally. This is a direct threat to the safety of every family on the road,“ Duffy wrote in a statement in September. “California’s reckless disregard is frankly disgusting and an affront to the millions of Americans who expect us to keep them safe.”

Newsom has been unsparing in his responses. “Sounds like the federal Secretary of Transportation needs a lesson on his own road rules,” wrote his press office in October on the social media platform X. “Once again, the Sean ‘Road Rules’ Duffy fails to share the truth — spreading easily disproven falsehoods in a sad and desperate attempt to please his ‘dear leader,’” the office said in November, responding to more allegations by Duffy.

Until recently, the federal government allowed states to issue trucking licenses to non-citizen immigrants, including refugees, asylum seekers, and those with DACA. Of the more than 720,000 trucking licenses that are active in California, about 8%, or roughly 61,000, belong to this class of immigrants.

Now, under the new federal regulations released in September, nearly all of the 61,000 immigrants will lose their licenses in the coming months or years — for some, as soon as January.

Losing thousands of license-holders could disrupt California’s transportation economy, said Rebecca Higgins, vice president of policy for the Eno Center on Transportation, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. These cuts may lead to a sudden drop in the number of drivers in the state, potentially increasing shipping costs, she said.

In addition to the new regulations, the U.S. Transportation Department has repeatedly claimed that it conducted a “nationwide audit” of trucking policies and that at least five other states — Texas, South Dakota, Washington, Pennsylvania, and Colorado — have a history of violating federal law by giving licenses to ineligible immigrants. But the transportation department only publicly released an audit of California’s Department of Motor Vehicles and has refused to respond to CalMatters’ requests for data on any other state.

Duffy has threatened to withhold $160 million in federal highway safety funds from California because of alleged violations found in the audit. That money, representing about 4% of these federal funds, is supposed to arrive next fall. Duffy doesn’t have the legal right to withhold the remaining 96%.

Separately, the transportation department said it will no longer award any money to California from a different federal grant, totaling about $40 million, because it alleges that California isn’t enforcing English-language proficiency guidelines for truck drivers.

‘Insufficient evidence’ to support new regulations

Over the last decade, the demand for truckers has grown as companies like Amazon increasingly offer home shipping for any product imaginable. The trucking industry has expanded along with it, though companies have long struggled to retain workers willing to work the long hours with low pay that many entry-level positions offer.

With more trucks on the roads compared to 10 years ago, truck drivers are involved in a higher percentage of crashes and traffic-related fatalities. Duffy said the new regulations for immigrant drivers are an effort to save lives. But in publishing the new regulations on immigrant truck drivers, Duffy’s transportation department acknowledged that there’s “insufficient evidence” to prove that certain kinds of immigrants drive more dangerously than other drivers. Instead, the department justified the regulations by citing a number of high-profile crashes involving truck drivers who allegedly lack legal status, including a fiery crash on the I-10 in Ontario in October.

The driver, Jashanpreet Singh, is in jail, where he’s charged with vehicular manslaughter and reckless driving leading to the death of three people and injuries of two more. The U.S. Department of Homeland Security claims he lacks legal status and said it plans to detain him even if the charges are dropped.

In a Nov. 13 letter, the transportation department claims that if California had complied with the new regulations then “the crash may have been avoided.” But Higgins said the federal focus on a few crashes involving immigrants is glossing over the “root cause” of most traffic accidents, such as speeding and driving under the influence.

Thousands of licenses rescinded

Following the federal audit of California’s DMV, the state has already rescinded 17,000 licenses from immigrant truck drivers, giving each of them 60 days to stop driving and find a new job. Duffy said California was “caught red-handed” violating federal law on trucking licenses while Newom’s press office said that was a “lie.”

The reality is more nuanced. The federal audit found that California had issued some trucking licenses with expiration dates that extend past the dates that the driver could prove their legal right to remain in the U.S. The California DMV said that federal law never prohibited this practice until September, when the transportation department changed the rules. California rescinded these 17,000 licenses to abide by the new regulations and never violated the law, the DMV said.

After it rescinded those licenses, California asked the federal government to drop its threat to withhold $160 million in highway safety funds, but the transportation department refused.

All told, the money at risk represents a small fraction of the total federal dollars that go to California’s highways, so small that most Californians are unlikely to notice the change on the road, said Higgins. “The general public doesn’t notice a 3% or 2% reduction in highway funding, and they don’t notice a 1% reduction in trucks on the road.”

Still, she said many truck drivers and trucking companies could be hit hard.

Because of the transportation department’s new rules, California has already denied over 300 applications for truck licenses from refugees, asylum seekers, and those with DACA status, said Toni Tinoco, the assistant deputy secretary for communications at the state’s transportation agency. Driving schools say that some students have decided not to apply at all, knowing that their applications won’t be accepted.

Even after rescinding 17,000 licenses, California still has about 44,000 immigrant truck drivers whose licenses are still valid. But it’s likely that they won’t be able to renew their licenses as long as the federal regulations remain in effect. The only exceptions are those who have certain work visas known as the H-2a, H-2b or E-2, which are relatively rare for truck drivers.

A lawsuit by two national unions representing truck drivers appealed the new federal regulations and a judge agreed last week to temporarily pause their implementation, saying the federal government didn’t give states enough prior notice before changing its rules.

But the U.S. Transportation Department said the ruling doesn’t apply to any state under disciplinary actions, such as California. Tinoco said California will continue denying immigrants their licenses.