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As in-person voting begins in California’s special election on redistricting, Gov. Gavin Newsom has repeatedly asserted that the Trump administration could send immigration agents to polling places in an attempt to intimidate voters and depress turnout.

The governor’s warnings, while unspecific, speak to what community leaders call real, palpable fears within some Latino communities that immigration agents could show up on Election Day. And ever since the Supreme Court greenlit using racial profiling in immigration stops, even U.S. citizens are scared they could be detained simply for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

“You’re going to likely see members of our military in and around polling booths and voting places all across this country,” Newsom warned last week during a virtual event with former President Barack Obama in support of Proposition 50. “I would say the same about ICE and Border Patrol, and I say that soberly.”

Newsom has not provided any evidence to suggest that the Department of Homeland Security will deploy immigration agents to polling sites. But he pointed to the Los Angeles campaign launch event for Prop. 50, his plan to redraw the state’s congressional districts to favor Democrats, where federal immigration agents blocked supporters from entering the area and detained a nearby strawberry vendor.

A spokesperson for Immigration and Customs Enforcement wrote in a statement that the agency “is not planning operations targeting polling locations,” but that if agents are tracking “a dangerous criminal alien” who goes near a voting site they could be arrested there. A spokesperson for Customs and Border Patrol did not respond to emailed questions.

The governor argues that the Trump administration’s indiscriminate immigration raids, military and National Guard deployments are intended to suppress Democratic voters and keep Republicans in control of Congress for the duration of Trump’s presidency.

“We know the intention of this administration — to rig next year’s midterms,” Newsom told reporters recently. “It’s absolutely predictable. It’s a script that’s been written for centuries. It’s the authoritarian playbook.”

The Trump administration’s Justice Department announced on Friday that it will deploy personnel to monitor polling sites in five counties: Fresno, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange and Riverside on Election Day. Fresno, Kern and Riverside counties are majority Latino.

The poll monitors will “ensure transparency, ballot security, and compliance with federal law,” according to the department. The administration has not said whether the agents will be stationed at polling sites in addition to county election offices where ballots are counted.

Democrats denounced the plan.

“Deploying federal forces to ‘monitor’ elections is nothing more than an intimidation tactic meant to suppress the vote,” said Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party. “What Republicans are really afraid of is record voter participation and a clear verdict from the people of California in support of Prop 50.”

‘Alarming’ number of Latinos fear ICE at polls

The vast majority of Californians vote by mail, especially since the state adopted universal mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic. Just over 80% of votes cast in the 2024 presidential election were mail-in ballots.

But casting a ballot in-person on Election Day is a point of pride for many American immigrants, especially Latinos, said Yvette Martinez, executive director of the California Democratic Party.

“It’s a cultural thing,” said Martinez. “People want to show up and say, ‘I’m patriotic, here’s my civic duty. I’m here to vote, I’m here to make my voice heard. And when you quell that, it’s dangerous. And it’s actually sad.”

In a September survey of 1,200 registered Latino voters conducted by the Latino Community Foundation, a nonprofit that funds Latino advocacy, 53% said they planned to vote in person. Of those, more than half said they would vote on Election Day.

The same survey also found that two-thirds of the Latino voters surveyed said they were at least somewhat worried that ICE or Border Patrol agents could show up at polling places. The poll had a sampling error margin of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

“These are citizens of this country. And if they are concerned about immigration or any type of federal presence at in-person voting sites, that is alarming,” said Christian Arana, who leads policy strategy for the foundation.

“If people want to vote in person, it is their fundamental right,” Arana said. “I never want us to buy into the fear that you can’t participate in democracy because immigration enforcement may show up.”

Federal immigration authorities face off against protesters during an ICE raid at Ambiance Apparel in Downtown Los Angeles on June 6, 2025. Photo by J.W. Hendricks for CalMatters

So far in the race for Prop. 50, only 9% of registered Latino voters have returned their ballots, according to the most recent data available from Political Data Inc., compared to 19% of white voters and 13% of Black voters. California pollster Ben Tulchin, who recently surveyed Latino voters about Prop. 50, said those numbers “are not unusual” since Latino voters tend to lag other ethnic and racial groups in casting ballots.

Sen. Anna Caballero, Democrat of Merced, said U.S. citizens told her they’re afraid to go outside, especially when there have been reports of ICE sightings in the region. Many of her constituents come from mixed-status families in which some family members are citizens and others aren’t. She blames the Trump administration for terrifying those families so much that they don’t want to leave their homes unless absolutely necessary.

“This idea that all you have to do is pull out your driver’s license, or pull out some kind of documentation, that’s a fantasy,” said Caballero. “U.S. citizens have been detained and taken into custody.”

A recent investigation by ProPublica found that at least 170 U.S. citizens have been wrongfully detained by ICE since the second Trump administration took office, prompting intense criticism from opponents. Top Democrats on the House and Senate government oversight committees, Rep. Robert Garcia of California and Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut, have opened an investigation.

Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, another Merced Democrat and the daughter of Mexican immigrants, said ever since the Supreme Court issued its racial profiling ruling earlier this summer, she keeps her passport in her bag at all times.

“Just because you may look like an immigrant — which I don’t even know what that really means — you know, I could also be targeted,” Soria said.

‘My voice will be heard’

Opponents of Newsom’s redistricting plan say the governor’s warnings about Election Day intimidation and interference from federal agents are exaggerated.

“People see it for what it is. It’s politics, it’s headline-grabbing,” said Hector Barajas, a spokesperson for the No on 50 campaign.

Barajas denounced Democrats for what he said was intentional disenfranchisement of nonwhite voters, since white college-educated voters are historically far more likely to turn out during off-year elections.

“This is what happens with special elections, is people don’t turn out to vote, especially Hispanics, which is a sad tragedy in itself,” Barajas said.

Martinez said Democratic Party volunteers are for the first time urging voters to return their ballots early via mail or drop-off when they go door to door and handing out pamphlets with instructions for how to report any suspicious activity near polling sites.

The party has also trained hundreds of volunteers as poll watchers who will monitor polling sites for signs of intimidation or federal interference starting the weekend before Election Day.

Arana, with the Latino Community Foundation, said he’s choosing to vote in person as an act of defiance.

“I’m seeing this as a form of a declaration that I am a Latino man in the state,” he said. “My voice will be heard on this issue, and no one is ever gonna take that right away from me.”