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As wildfire season quickly approaches, state officials are bracing for a “Super El Niño” that could bring extreme and unpredictable weather to Northern California, potentially increasing fire risk. Combined with ongoing drought conditions and poor snowpack in the northern Sierras, fire officials worry that we could be in for another challenging fire season.

At last night’s annual town hall on wildfire preparedness and prevention, State Sen. Mike McGuire said the incoming El Niño is predicted to be “the strongest that we’ve seen in 140 years,” according to new data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and National Weather Service (NWS). 

McGuire | Screenshot

“From what we’ve seen in the past, [El Niño] brings in unsettled tropical moisture that brings lightning into the region, and that could spell trouble,” McGuire said. “You need to be prepared.”

A typical El Niño often results in a wet winter, especially in Southern California, whereas La Niña tends to bring drier conditions. A rare “super” El Niño, which happens every 10 to 15 years, produces more intense and unpredictable weather patterns, ranging from record-breaking tropical storms to extreme drought. 

Speaking at last night’s town hall, CalFire Northern Region Chief George Morris III said El Niño conditions are especially difficult to predict in Northern California, where there is little correlation between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns. “It can mean that we’re going to see more moisture than normal [or] it can mean heat domes followed by tropical moisture,” he said. “It can also mean extended dry periods over a swath of California.”

For example, the 2015 El Niño — one of the strongest ever recorded — didn’t deliver the expected precipitation to drought-stricken California. Instead, it fueled a record-breaking fire season, with more than 880,000 acres burned across the state. “If you recall, in Lake County, we had pretty severe fires — the Rocky, the Jerusalem and then the Valley — and that really ushered in the era of the mega fire,” Morris said.

One of the main indicators to watch is snowpack.

Morris | Screenshot

“The final snowpack survey occurred on April 1 at Phillips station, and it showed 6% of normal in the northern Sierra and southern Cascades,” Morris explained. “The snowpack is kind of our locked-away reservoir. … That’s an indicator that we’re going to get fires at high elevation sooner than we would normally. … In the Bay Area, we’re seeing an incredible amount of growth in our grasslands. This late rain means that we’ll get secondary and tertiary growth in the grasslands … and I think that can be the fuse for a bomb that could [lead to] a very difficult fire season.”

Increased fire activity out east and in higher elevations will likely impact the federal agencies that oversee those jurisdictions, Morris said, which could, in turn, impact mutual aid response across the region. 

To prepare for a potentially difficult season, CalFire, along with other federal and state agencies, has ramped up prescribed burns to remove hazardous fuels from overgrown areas. CalFire may suspend burning “sooner than the statute requires,” Morris added. “We’ll look at that at a county level or an elevation band level to make sure that tool is available to you as long as possible.”

The state has made major investments in CalFire staffing and equipment in recent years to support wildfire response. McGuire said the state has “doubled the number of CalFire firefighters” in the last decade, and plans to hire another 2,000 over the next 48 months.

“We’ve phased out all the Vietnam-era helicopters, [and] we’ve phased in night-fighting Black Hawk helicopters,” McGuire continued. “We have more fire engines on the road than we’ve had in decades and $8 billion has been and will be invested in wildfire prevention. That’s a game changer for the state.”

Even with these major investments, fire officials are still asking residents to do their part in creating defensible space around their homes. Over the next year or so, state officials will roll out “Zone 0” regulations that would require homeowners to clear hazardous materials within five feet of a structure. 

“In general, the idea is to remove things that can burn,” Morris explained. “If you have junipers or volatile vegetation right next to your structure, that’s something that’s probably going to have to be removed in that process. … For the level of protection that I want on my home, I’m removing anything that isn’t well-watered, anything that can combust. … Just imagine when wind hits your home and leaves collect — that’s where embers are going to show up.”

You can read more about those new regulations at this link. If you’d like to learn more about what CalFire is doing to prepare for the upcoming fire season, click “play” on the video up top.