As a wealth advisor, my job is to talk to clients about their money. And to do so in all seasons of their life: marriage and divorce, career promotion and job loss, and birth and death. Financial advisors regularly deal with crisis in the lives of their clients and how that influences investment decisions.

I have mixed feelings when writing about investing in times of war like this because human beings have far more dignity and value and influence for good or evil than money. Flipping such things into a conversation about investing can feel trite and insensitive, and we should resist that impulse.

But it’s my job and therefore my responsibility to speak to the potential impacts of geopolitical conflict on our financial journeys, specifically in how we invest.

It might surprise you to find out that typically the impact of military invasions and conflicts when it comes to market volatility, as JPMorgan puts it, is “short-lived”.(1)

Furthermore, the below chart compiles major geopolitical calamities and shows that the US stock market has averaged a one-year return of 14%.

Ryan Detrick, a Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, digs even deeper on the details of general (not only military) geopolitical shocks.(2)

On average, the S&P 500’s investment return is positive over a 3-, 6-, and 12-month period.

What about the impact of an oil shock?

We know this affects gas prices, is inflationary, and can crunch the pocketbooks of the consumer. But how does it affect the stock market?

Matt Cerminaro, a data research associate at a wealth management firm, has this encouraging chart(3):

Translation: since 1990, the S&P 500 has been down in only 17% of years that followed a dramatic oil price spike, and the average and median performance is above a 20% return.

Those odds are worth considering.

What’s the takeaway from all this data?

The stock market does not always perform how you think it will.

Therefore, don’t become a bigger problem to your portfolio than the event itself. Investment decisions you make may have a longer impact than the events themselves.

None of the above guarantees anything.

But it does give perspective.

In times of flooded news feeds and division, hard data cuts through the noise.

Overall, make sure you have an investment portfolio that #1 you can handle and #2 enables you to reach your goals.

Thus far, the investment return of the US stock market has withstood incredible pressure from crisis and benefited long-term investors significantly. (4)

Investing is hard. Life can be hard.

Don’t give up.

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1. Madison Faller & Erik Wytenus, “The US and Israel strike Iran: what it could mean for markets” (March 2, 2026). Accessed online.

2. Posted on X by Ryan Detrick (February 28, 2026 at 12:48pm). Accessed online.

3. “What Happens to Stocks After Oil Rips?” (March 3, 2026). Accessed online.

4. “Markets in Perspective Client Resource Kit” (Fourth Quarter 2025). Accessed online.

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Brandon Stockman has been a Wealth Advisor licensed with the Series 7 and 66 since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He has the privilege of helping manage accounts throughout the United States and works in the Fortuna office of Johnson Wealth Management. You can sign up for his weekly newsletter on investing and financial education or subscribe to his YouTube channel. Securities and advisory services offered through Prospera Financial Services, Inc. | Member FINRA, SIPC. This should not be considered tax, legal, or investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.