Press release from the City of Arcata Environmental Services Department:

The Environmental Services Department encourages residents to properly dispose of cooking grease this holiday season and all year long.

Many people celebrate the holidays by preparing traditional feasts including turkey, ham, gravy, stuffing and desserts. As delicious as these foods may be, they are typically prepared with fats, oils, butter and grease which can wreak havoc on drains and the City’s wastewater system if not disposed of properly. When residents pour fats, oils or grease down a sink or toilet, it increases the chance of clogged drains resulting in costly plumbing problems or sanitary sewer overflows. Sanitary sewer overflows are a public health concern and can cause serious environmental issues.

The Environmental Services Department has some helpful tips for all community members to help avoid clogging sewer drains with fats, oils and grease:

• Avoid pouring cooking grease or oil down the sink or toilet.
• Do not dispose of food through the garbage disposal.
• Wipe greasy dishes and pots with a paper towel or napkin to absorb cooking oil before washing them in the sink.
• Scrape vegetable scraps from dishes for composting and scrape greasy food residue into the garbage prior to washing dishes. Outdoor compost bins can be purchased from the City of Arcata’s Environmental Services Department for $35. Residents can also utilize a local compost company such as The Local Worm Guy or Full Cycle Compost. Visit this link or call (707) 822-8184 for more information.
• Cooled and solidified cooking grease or oil should be placed in a sealed container and then put in a solid waste garbage bin. Alternatively, pour fats and oils into cat litter until it is absorbed and dispose the litter into the trash.

To report sanitary sewer overflows and for more information regarding fat, oil and grease disposal and proper disposal of Household Hazardous Waste, please call the Environmental Services Department at (707) 822-8184 or email eservices@cityofarcata.org.

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Press release from Rep. Jared Huffman:

Today, U.S. Representative Jared Huffman (CA-02) released a statement praising Pacific Gas and Electric Company’s (PG&E) initial draft plan to remove two dams on the Eel River. The plan also sets the stage for negotiating a new diversion from the Eel to the Russian river.

“PG&E’s draft surrender application is a major step forward to achieving the Two-Basin Solution I’ve advocated for years. The plan includes full and expedited removal of two dams that harm salmon on the Eel River while allowing for a modern fish-friendly diversion to provide water to Mendocino, Sonoma, and Marin counties. I’ll be working to ensure that both elements are completed in a way that best protects communities, tribes, and natural resources in the Eel and Russian river watersheds,” said Rep. Huffman.

Congressman Huffman has played an active role in this matter, having facilitated initial discussions to create a Two-Basin Solution for the project and establishing the Potter Valley Project Ad Hoc Committee in 2018 when they learned that PG&E was surrendering the license. The committee, made up of a wide range of tribes, stakeholders, agencies, local governments, and PG&E, formed the basis for negotiations surrounding dam removal and water supply in the two watersheds.

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Press release from the Friends of the Eel and Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations:

For well over a century, Eel River dams have blocked salmon access to hundreds of miles of cold water habitat in the Upper Eel River watershed, but not for much longer. Today PG&E unveiled their initial draft plan for removing two Eel River dams and surrendering the utility’s federal license for the 100 year old Potter Valley Project. One alternative would simply remove Scott and Cape Horn dams; the other, advanced by Sonoma Water, would move forward with a new diversion to the Russian River during the dam removal process.

“Either way you look at it, the Eel River Dams’ days are numbered,” remarked Friends of the Eel River Executive Director Alicia Hamann. “We prefer the most straightforward and quickest path to dam removal possible – the fish can’t afford any delays.”

The Eel River was once a prolific salmon producing stream with upwards of a million fish returning annually to spawn and provide an abundant food source for Native American Tribes. Later, after the early 1900’s in-river canneries closed, the Eel supported a carefully managed ocean commercial fishing economy “These dams helped put a lot of commercial fishermen out of work,” notes fisherwoman Vivian Helliwell. “If we bring back the salmon, we can bring back the local food-producing jobs.”

The Eel River dams are part of the Potter Valley Project (PVP) which diverts Eel River Water through a tunnel to the adjacent Russian River Watershed. However, the PVP no longer generates power, or profit, for PG &E. The power plant is in disrepair as is Scott Dam and its reservoir, which cannot be filled due to seismic risks, and thus offers little benefit even to water users.

Eel River advocates are excited about PG&E’s plans to remove the dams, but they have concerns regarding the alternatives put forth by Sonoma Water et al.. While Sonoma’s draft Plan accepts the removal of Scott Dam and Cape Horn Dam, it also vaguely describes the creation of a new governmental entity that would build new diversion infrastructure to maintain an out-of-basin diversion. Sonoma’s plan leaves some of the most difficult questions unanswered, such as who will pay how much for diverted Eel River water.

And a number of groups, including the Pacific Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Associations (PCFFA), question whether the historical water diversions from one river (the Eel) to an entirely different river (the Russian) should continue to exist, especially if that water is needed for Eel River salmon and steelhead recovery. “All the downstream water users on the Eel River have been deprived of “beneficial use” of the diverted water for 100 years, including “Tribal beneficial use,” recreation, domestic, municipal, ranching and farming, and fish and wildlife that rely on plentiful cold water, instead of warm water from the reservoir that promotes predatory pike minnow and toxic algae,” PCFFA’s Helliwell stated. Sonoma Water has had plenty of time to put forth a plan to maintain the diversion. “Sonoma Water’s Plan looks like a last-ditch effort to delay dam removal while they try to find political support for subsidizing the wine industry. While we will listen to any creative solutions to meet the region’s water needs, we will oppose anything that adversely impacts Eel River fisheries or delays dam removal,” said Hamann.

Members of the public interested in supporting the most beneficial option for Eel River fish can submit comments to PG&E by December 22. Visit eelriver.org to learn more.

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NOTE: This post originally stated in its headline that PG&E intended to remove the dams in 2028. However, Paul Moreno, a spokesperson for the utility, later clarified, “The only timeline is that our application is due to FERC [in] January 2025. PG&E believes the earliest we would see FERC issue an order [for dam removal] would be 2028. This does not mean construction would occur in 2028, nor is there any regulatory requirement for FERC to act in a specific time.”

As forecasts tease California with rainstorms this week, the state’s reservoirs are already flush with water.

It’s a big departure from a year ago: The state’s major reservoirs — which store water collected mostly from rivers in the northern portion of the state — are in good shape, with levels at 124% of average. In late 2022, bathtub rings of dry earth lined lakes that had collectively dipped to about two-thirds of average — until heavy winter storms in January filled many of them almost to the brim.

Yet healthy water levels don’t mean California’s reservoirs are full. Most of California’s large reservoirs are operated for flood control as well as water storage, with space kept empty to rein in winter storm runoff.

The wet season has arrived in California, with El Niño conditions projected to continue strengthening. But for the Golden State, with its unpredictable swings from dry to wet and back again, El Niño doesn’t guarantee heavy rainfall.

And as California’s water managers plan for the water year ahead, they’re faced, as always, with their dueling responsibilities: forestalling floods while preparing for possible scarcity in a state where water supplies are often stretched thin and long droughts are common.

When state climatologist Michael Anderson looks into California’s water year ahead, he says the crystal ball is cloudy.

A murky forecast, both near and far

Threats of a major storm dissolved into showers in parts of California this week, with another surge of rainfall expected to wrap up this weekend. Rainfall is only expected to reach 1 to 2 inches statewide through Saturday morning, with light snowfall predicted in the Sierra Nevada mountains at higher elevations.

“Overall this is looking to be a beneficial rainfall event for Southern California, which is definitely welcome during the typical peak of our fire season,” the National Weather Service office for San Diego reported earlier this week.

Some headlines heralded it as the first storm of many as El Niño continues to strengthen and intensify. Characterized by warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, El Niño is often expected to bring wetter weather.

But in California, the connection is more tenuous. Of seven El Niño events over the past 23 years, Anderson said, two have been dry, three have been roughly average and two have been wet. One recent study reported that El Niño accounts for only about 25% of the year-to-year variability in California’s rain and snowfall during the winter.

“What that tells me is anything goes,” Anderson said. “El Niño by itself doesn’t define our water year.”

In fact, the year is actually off to a drier start: Statewide, California has seen only about 45% of average precipitation since this water year began Oct. 1.

“What that tells me is anything goes. El Niño by itself doesn’t define our water year.”
— Michael Anderson, state climatologist

Marty Ralph, director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego, suspects that it’s atmospheric rivers like the ones that pummeled California last year that will determine whether El Niño will bring a firehose or a trickle to California.

“It’s like you’re playing poker, and you’ve got a good hand — that’s El Niño for us. But we haven’t finished the round of the game, and we still have to draw a couple cards,” Ralph said. “But we might not draw the good cards.”

Waste not, want not?

With seasonal outlooks unable to reliably say whether a winter will be wet or dry, water managers must plan for both.

Fortunately there’s some wiggle room this year, according to Jeanine Jones, the Department of Water Resources’ interstate resources manager. Last year’s massive snowpack and abundant rainfall filled the state’s reservoirs enough that even if this rainy season leans dry, she said, “We’re going into next year with a cushion, which is always good.”

That doesn’t mean the reservoirs are full, though. Lake Oroville — the largest reservoir on the State Water Project, which sends water south to farms and cities — and Lake Shasta — critical to growers and other water users reliant on the federal Central Valley Project — are at about two-thirds of their total capacity.

That’s because with reservoirs that serve the dual purpose of flood control and water storage, water managers must release water to keep space empty to wrangle possible floods during the wet season, Jones said.

The water that flows into rivers and streams and out to the ocean is often bemoaned as water wasted. But waste is in the eye of the beholder, said Jay Lund, vice-director of the Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis.

“Water that’s ‘wasted’ is always water used by somebody else,” Lund said.

The list of benefits for fishing, conservation, Delta farmers, water quality and healthy shorelines is lengthy. Water allowed to flow out into the San Francisco Bay, for instance, washes away salts and pollutants, transports sediment and sand necessary to maintain marshes and restore eroding beaches, assists salmon in migrations and helps maintain healthy ecosystems.

Still, the Public Policy Institute of California reports that California could have socked away more water last year, had there been better ways to ferry water from full rivers to groundwater recharge sites, and better coordination among landowners, local agencies, and others.

“I tend to think that there is room for capturing more surface water … if you could afford the cost of capturing it,” agreed Lund. “That, to me, is the biggest problem.”

The controversial Sites Reservoir project, for instance, is projected to cost more than $4.4 billion. The reservoir, planned in the western Sacramento Valley, would store as much as 1.5 million acre-feet of Sacramento River water, alarming environmental groups that say drawing more water from the river will imperil its already-struggling fish.

“I tend to think that there is room for capturing more surface water … if you could afford the cost of capturing it. That, to me, is the biggest problem.”
— Jay Lund, Center for Watershed Sciences at UC Davis

In early November, Gov. Gavin Newsom cleared the project to be fast-tracked “to the extent feasible” through any litigation challenging it under the landmark California Environmental Quality Act. That move was made possible with new legislation. Even so, the project is not expected to be completed before 2030 or 2031.

In the meantime, researchers like UC San Diego’s Ralph, along with local, state and federal agencies, hope to operate the state’s reservoirs more nimbly by incorporating new weather forecasting tools into decades-old rulebooks governing when to hold onto water and when to release it.

The program allowed the Russian River watershed to hold onto about 7,000 to 8,000 acre-feet more water in Lake Mendocino this past year, and an additional 19,000 acre-feet more in Lake Sonoma, according to Donald Seymour, deputy director of engineering with Sonoma Water. The Department of Water Resources announced that it is expanding the effort to two major reservoirs, Lake Oroville and New Bullards Bar, as well.

Many are looking down rather than up for opportunities to store more water. The Department of Water Resources estimates that about 3.8 million acre-feet of water was captured through groundwater recharge by last summer.

The Southern California water import giant, the Metropolitan Water District, also recently announced a $211 million groundwater bank in the Antelope Valley. The bank can store 280,000 acre-feet of water, enough to fill Castaic Lake, the largest State Water Project reservoir in Southern California. Though construction to allow withdrawals hasn’t been completed yet, the bank stands ready to accept deposits.

The bank is aimed at providing a little more net for the tightrope walk that California’s water managers start anew every water year.

“We always plan for it to be potentially very dry, or very wet,” said Brad Coffey, Metropolitan’s water resources manager. “No matter what kind of year we had this year.”

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CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.

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Nordic Aquafarms has cleared yet another hurdle in the extensive permitting process for its land-based fish farm planned for the Samoa Peninsula. During today’s monthly meeting, the California Coastal Commission unanimously approved a coastal development permit, with special conditions, for wastewater discharge for the proposed project. 

The Norwegian seafood company plans to raise yellowtail kingfish at the massive aquaculture facility, which would discharge more than 10 million gallons of “tertiary treated wastewater” per day through the existing Redwood Marine Terminal II outfall pipe located 1.55 miles offshore. To put that into perspective, when the Samoa Pulp Mill was operational it would produce 70 million gallons of untreated wastewater per day, according to Coastal Commission staff.

“The proposed discharge has the potential to adversely affect several coastal resources, including water quality and fisheries,” according to the staff report. “However, a review of available information by Commission staff indicates that such effects would be unlikely. A dilution study commissioned by Nordic found that water quality targets for salinity, ammonia, and temperature would all be met within no more than five feet of the outfall pipe’s diffuser array. The dilution study also found that nitrates, the largest constituent in the discharge, would reach the same concentrations as background coastal waters fifty percent of the time in the immediate vicinity of the diffuser.”

In staff’s projected worst-case scenario, the “discharge plume” could extend up to 1.5 kilometers, or 0.93 miles, away from the diffuser array, but it would not enter Humboldt Bay or other sensitive marine areas, according to the report. “Moreover, the rapid dilution of nutrients expected to occur in coastal waters would reduce the likelihood of eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms.”

The staff report includes five special conditions to further reduce potential impacts on water quality and coastal fisheries through extensive monitoring and review.

Brenda Chandler, chief executive officer for Nordic Aquafarms, spoke in favor of staff’s recommendation, adding that Nordic would be willing to implement the special conditions requested by Coastal Commission staff.

Chandler | Screenshot

“We rely [on] and must preserve the very marine resource that your commission is tasked to protect. Our values are aligned,” she said. “We think that locating the farm in the coastal zone makes sense and [would be] an excellent use of the property. [It would] provide for further cleanup of the land, modernize the stormwater systems and provide water monitoring, as mentioned, two years before and after we start to discharge.”

Chandler noted that Nordic has held over 50 site tours and hundreds of public meetings since the project’s inception, all of which have allowed Nordic to “make this a better project.”

“These interactions truly have molded and shaped what you see today,” she said. “We may not have always agreed with one another, but we have certainly always listened.”

Speaking on behalf of the Humboldt Bay Harbor, Recreation and Conservation District during the public comment portion of today’s meeting, outgoing Executive Director Larry Oetker underscored the district’s “strong support” for the project.

“The former [Samoa] Pulp Mill is one of the most contaminated pieces of property on the entire California coast, and it also contains a host of blighted buildings. … Nobody would touch it with a 10-foot pole,” Oetker said. “[When] we acquired this property [in 2013], we set out a vision for how could we adaptively reuse this property and clean up the contamination. And at the end of the day, aquaculture was the primary anchor tenant that we felt like we could [host] … .”

Jennifer Kalt, executive director of Humboldt Waterkeeper, spoke on behalf of the Surfrider Foundation, the Northcoast Environmental Center and the Environmental Protection Information Center (EPIC), and offered her support for the permit application. She credited Nordic for its “commitment to 100 percent renewable energy” and the company’s “willingness to discuss, negotiate and compromise” throughout the project development process.

“We view the project’s potential impacts along with its benefits – namely that it would begin by removing contaminated structures, including the smokestack and chemical tanks abandoned in 2008 by the pulp mill that operated there since the 1960s,” Kalt continued. “We strongly support staff recommendations, and we urge you to approve the [coastal development permit] with special conditions.”

Scott Frazer, a representative of Citizens Protecting Humboldt Bay, asked the commission to table its decision on the permit application until after next month’s appeal hearing.

Citizens Protecting Humboldt Bay, an informal group of local residents, sued the County of Humboldt and the Board of Supervisors last year following the board’s decision to uphold the Planning Commission’s decision to certify Nordic’s Environmental Impact Report and approve a coastal development permit for the project. The group subsequently filed five appeals with the Coastal Commission that challenge the county’s issuance of a Coastal Development Permit. 

“The action proposed today should be delayed until after the five appeals of the [permit] approval by Humboldt County have been heard by your commission,” Frazer said. “Additionally, the approval by Humboldt County of the Nordic Aquafarms [permit] has been contested at every administrative level, and is now subject to litigation in Superior Court due to numerous California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) statute violations.”

Following public comment, Commissioner and Third District Humboldt County Supervisor Mike Wilson provided a bit of background on the defunct pulp mill site and how it has evolved in the last decade. “There’s been a lot of work that’s been done on this site,” he said, adding that more than $22 million has been spent on clean-up efforts since the Harbor District acquired the property in 2014.

Speaking specifically to outfall impacts associated with the project, Wilson said there are already aquaculture facilities operating at the site, including Coast Seafood’s oyster farming project.

“Are we talking about something that will that could have an impact? Sure. We have to talk about the significance of that, and I think staff has talked about that pretty specifically,” Wilson said. “I will say, when we say it’s massive, it is probably the biggest indoor [aquaculture] facility maybe on the planet. I mean, it’s only 30 acres, right? But if you do outdoor fish farming, then they can be hundreds of acres and they’re all over the place. This [project] is very unique in that space.”

Wilson also expressed support for the additional monitoring requirements implemented by Coastal Commission staff.

Commissioner Justin Cummings thanked staff for bringing forward recommendations “that minimize environmental impacts to the greatest extent possible.”

“To Commissioner Wilson’s point, there are going to be impacts and trade-offs, but I think for this – especially because it’s taking a former brownfield site, something that’s been heavily contaminated and putting it to a new use – I think that this is a really great model project,” Cummings said.

Commission Chair Donne Brownsey also expressed support for staff’s recommendation, adding that it is “encouraging to see present and future industries being proposed with elements, conditions and requirements that were not present in the past.”

After a bit of additional discussion, Cummings made a motion to approve staff’s recommendation, along with the special conditions listed in the staff report. Wilson seconded the action. 

The motion passed with a unanimous 12-0 vote.

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PREVIOUSLY:

• Massive New Fish Farm in the Works for Samoa Peninsula; Harbor District Expected to Bless Project Helmed by Norwegian Firm at Special Meeting Monday
• Humboldt Baykeeper Says: Samoa Fish Farm Proposal Looks Good So Far, But the Devil Will Be in the Details
• Let’s Take a Closer Look at This Big Fish Farm Proposal for the Samoa Peninsula
• In a Surprise Move, Nordic Aquafarms Agrees to Conduct Full Environmental Impact Report for Its Land-Based Fish Farm on the Samoa Peninsula
• Planning Commission Set to Consider Permits for Nordic Aquafarms Project Tonight
• Fishermen and Conservation Groups Appeal Nordic Aquafarms’ Environmental Report Certification to Humboldt County Supervisors
• Nordic Aquafarms Celebrates ‘Monumental Step Forward’ After Supes Deny Project Appeal
• Salmon OUT, Yellowtail IN: Nordic Aquafarms Announces Species Switch-Up at its Planned Humboldt Facility
• Water Quality Board Awards Wastewater Discharge Permit for Nordic Aquafarms’ Planned Peninsula Facility

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Years in development, Open Door Community Health Centers’ sparkling-new Arcata location has experienced some delays — caused primarily by the COVID pandemic and subsequent supply chain issues — but it’s now expected to start welcoming patients the first week of January, according to Cheyenne Spetzler, the nonprofit’s senior vice president of development.

“A lot of things are happening simultaneously,” Spetlzer said when we reached her by phone earlier this week. “Medical equipment is arriving tomorrow.”

The new health center, located just west of the intersection of Foster and Sunset avenues, near the Arcata Skate Park, will replace the organization’s two existing Arcata clinics — Humboldt Open Door Clinic on 10th Street and NorthCountry Clinic on 18th Street.

For Spetzler, the transition can’t come soon enough.

“We did want to replace our two aging buildings because it’s so hard to get a building license that if we lost either of those clinics, we wouldn’t be able to replace that [patient-serving] capacity,” she said. “So, to me, there has been a rush to get the new building built before we experienced a catastrophic failure in one building or the other.”

The new location is just slightly larger than the two it will replace, and patient capacity in Arcata is expected to rise modestly as well — from 43,306 to 44,000 annually. 

That doesn’t mean that the clinic will be able to admit hundreds of new patients, though. There is unmet demand for medical services across the county, particularly for primary care, and Spetzler said Open Door has patient waiting lists at all 10 of its locations. 

“We’re limited by the number of primary care providers we can recruit, mostly physicians,” she said. Open Door operates a family medicine residency program in collaboration with Providence-St. Joseph Hospital, and Spetzler said that program is “starting to hopefully generate some physicians who have an interest in being here long-term.”

The organization is already reaping benefits from its Advanced Practice Clinician Residency Program, which serves newly graduated family nurse practitioners and physician assistants.

“We do get to retain many of those grads, so we’re sort of growing our own,” Spetzler said, “but there is still a bit of a shortage. We knew for 25 years there would be, and here we are.”

She and her late husband, Herrmann Spetzler, who led Open Door for more than four decades, long predicted that Humboldt County would have difficulty recruiting and maintaining enough primary caregivers, though they hoped to alleviate some of the burden through telemedicine services. 

Open Door has done that, to a certain extent, but it’s not enough to meet demand.

”We have a pretty large department now that does full-time recruiting, and we still struggle,” Spetzler said. “We have openings.”

There’s a healthcare worker shortage affecting the entire country, and Spetzler said rural areas are suffering the most, though she added that Humboldt does have a lot of advantages, including the pleasant climate, relatively low housing costs (by California standards, anyway) and the presence of Cal Poly Humboldt.

And soon, Open Door will have a brand new clinic to attract applicants.

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PREVIOUSLY:

• NEW CLINIC COMING! Open Door Planning Big, Modern Arcata Medical Center to Replace Old Facilities Downtown and in Northtown
• Planning Commission Delays New Arcata Health Center Project Recommendation After Wiyot Tribe Requests Additional Archeological Survey
• New Arcata Clinic Back on Track: The City Has Reached an Agreement With Tribal Historians, and the Project Will Again Go Before the Planning Commission Tonight
• Arcata’s New Open Door Health Center Will Open This Fall, Replacing the Two Old Clinics in Town

Friend o’ the LoCO Rob Christensen sends along this photo, snapped today down at the Eureka Public Marina by the Wharfinger Building.

Yes, that is the Catalina Flyer — a 600-seat catamaran, round-trip service between Orange County and the town of Avalon, on Santa Catalina Island. 

What is going on here, buddy! Wrong turn? Did you just set sail that day for a three-hour tour?

As it happens, no less an authority than Wikipedia itself has the answer. To wit:

From Oct. 2022 to Nov. 2023 the Catalina Flyer underwent an extensive refit at Nichols Brother Boat Builders (the original builder of the vessel). The engines were upgraded to MTU 16v4000 m64 EPA tier 3 units. The interior cabin was fitted with USA built seats made by UES seating. 

Nicholas Brothers Boat Builders, we note, is located in Freeland, Washington, on Puget Sound. So it seems that the newly respiffed Flyer is just paying us a call on its trip back south. 

For six generations since emigrating from Mexico to America, Clarissa Renteria’s family never voted.

If any campaign mailers arrived during election season, Renteria’s parents — who both worked as warehouse workers in Woodlake, an agricultural town of 7,600 in California’s citrus belt — would throw them away. When their neighbor was elected mayor of Woodlake, Renteria’s father shrugged it off. “Look at him trying to fit in,” Renteria remembers her father saying.

“My family just didn’t feel included in the politics, didn’t feel seen,” Renteria, 25, said in an interview at a voter registration event in Tulare. “It was just like: ‘You guys obviously don’t care about me. I don’t care about you, and I’m not going to vote. I’m just going to work to live and that’s it.’”

Lack of engagement is common among millions of eligible Latino Californians who miss out on voting each year. Latinos are the least likely to vote, though they comprise the single largest racial and ethnic group statewide, research shows. They account for just 25% of the state’s likely voters despite making up 36% of the adult population statewide, according to the Public Policy Institute of California.

But they could hold the key to the 2024 U.S. Senate race since they’re a voting bloc largely untapped by the leading candidates.

“Whoever wins over Latino voters is going to win the March primary in 2024,” said Christian Arana, vice president of policy at the Latino Community Foundation.

But who’s that going to be? With less than four months until the March 5 primary, many Latino voters aren’t sure yet.

The leading Democratic candidates — U.S. Reps. Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Adam Schiff — are polling mostly less than 20% among Latino voters, while 30% to 40% remain undecided, according to surveys conducted this year. In an October Latino Community Foundation and BSP Research poll of 900 Latino voters, roughly half said they did not have an opinion about the Senate candidates yet or did not know enough about them to form one.

“We are not seeing yet any of the Latino electorate connect with any particular candidates for U.S. Senate,” said Matt Barreto, founder of BSP Research and the Latino Policy and Politics Institute at the University of California Los Angeles.

“I think all of these candidates who are running right now are behind.”

Among all voters, Schiff and Porter are the frontrunners in polls in the past two months, well ahead of Lee and Republicans, though roughly one third of those surveyed are still undecided. The top two vote-getters on March 5, regardless of party, advance to the November general election.

Candidates have met with Latino leaders, conducted listening tours in communities of color and visited Latino business owners around the state, some as early as February, according to the campaigns. They have also been racking up endorsements from Latino leaders locally and nationally. On Nov. 4, the three top Democrats — Lee, Porter and Schiff — participated in a forum on immigration issues hosted by The Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights Action Fund.

But political experts say it requires much more to gain support from Latino voters: Early, consistent and aggressive campaign outreach, but more importantly, issues resonating enough to persuade Latinos to not only vote, but vote for them.

“Low voter turnout is almost as significant an indicator of a lack of appeal of a message as voting for another party,” said Mike Madrid, former political director for the California Republican Party and a political strategist with expertise on Latino voting.

“I don’t care how early you start. If you don’t have a message that resonates, it doesn’t matter.”

Population-wise, the potential political power of Latinos in California seems unmatched.

They are the biggest racial and ethnic group, accounting for 40% of the state’s population. California is also home to 8 million — or one quarter — of the nation’s eligible Latino voters, more than any other state, according to the Pew Research Center. And that number is growing due to young Latinos coming of age, increasing their share of the state’s eligible voting population.

But Latinos are significantly underrepresented in voter registration and turnout statewide and nationwide.

They made up just 14% of “frequent voters” (those who voted in at least five of the seven most recent elections), while white voters made up 71%, according to an August poll from the University of California Berkeley Institute of Government Studies.

Latinos also had the lowest turnout rate of all groups in the 2020 election statewide and nationwide, according to a 2022 analysis by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute. Just 60% of eligible Latinos in California registered to vote, and just 55% of eligible Latinos voted, the data shows. They accounted for 32% of California’s eligible voters, but only 27% of those who voted that year.

Poorer + younger = less engaged

Why are Latinos less likely to vote?

One contributing factor: Latinos are disproportionately poorer, especially in California, which is among states with the highest income inequality, Madrid noted.

More than half of Californians living in poverty are Latinos, according to data from the Public Policy Institute of California. Only 1 in 10 Latino households can afford a median-priced home in the state — a percentage lower than their white and Asian counterparts, according to the California Association of Realtors.

“When you have no upward economic mobility … that’s a very big problem for turnout,” Madrid said.

Jovonna Renteria, a 26-year-old Latino voter in Tulare County, said working-class Latinos in her neighborhood prioritize their immediate needs — such as housing, food and childcare — over voting. Her mother works in a warehouse, and she is a first-generation college student majoring in social work.

“When people are so focused on just trying to survive, (voting) gets pushed to the side,” said Renteria, who is not related to Clarissa Renteria.

Latinos in California also tend to be younger, and more than half of the state’s population ages 24 and younger are Latinos, research shows. Nationwide, 34 million young Latinos will be qualified to vote next year.

But younger voters are less likely to participate, political experts say. They tend to be less affluent and motivated to vote not by habit, but by issues that matter to them, said Mark Baldassare, survey director at the Public Policy Institute of California.

Youths also have a lower “stake in society” since they are less likely to be parents or homeowners, who tend to be more invested in local politics such as property taxes or school bonds, Madrid said.

“If you don’t do that, you have a very transient mobile society, and that is a very civically disengaged one, which is not good for democracy,” he said.

‘Disenfranchised’ and disconnected

Mateo Fernandez, 17, will be a first-time voter next year. While he is excited, the San Diego native said no one around him talked about voting until he was in eighth grade.

“A lot of people will tell you: ‘I just don’t know … how that works.’ Or they feel hopeless, like they have no power in what’s going on around them because everyone else seems so much more powerful,” he said.

Jovonna Renteria saw the same in her community. She said Latinos feel “disenfranchised” and have “lost faith in the system” since they don’t see how they can benefit from those elections.

The feeling of disconnect is partly due to a historical and current lack of outreach from political campaigns, said Mindy Romero, founder and director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy and a political scientist who studies voting and underrepresentation among communities of color.

It’s a chicken-and-egg problem echoed in other states such as Texas: Latinos are less likely to vote because campaigns rarely reach out to them, but campaigns are less inclined to reach out to them because they focus on likely voters, Romero noted.

“We know that often in the Latino community … that you need to make the case and build trust and use trusted messengers,” she said. “We still don’t see candidates doing it, or at least not in a sustained way.”

But when campaigns do reach out, some rely on stereotypes about the Latino communities, holding events featuring mariachi bands, sprinkling in a few Spanish words and “parachuting” in and out, Romero said.

Organizers inform attendees about their rights as voters and the available community resources at a voter registration event in Tulare on Nov. 1, 2023. Photo by Zaydee Sanchez for CalMatters.

Presidential campaigns are also known to hold events at taco shops to rally the Latino vote, running the risk of what Barreto called “Hispandering.” Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden dined at King Taco — a famous Los Angeles joint — during their presidential bids.

“But there’s so much more to our community than that one particular taco shop in East L.A.,” Arana said.

The inconsistent outreach makes Latino voters feel ignored, said Jose Barrera, national vice president for the Far West at the League of United Latin American Citizens.

“Come every four years, it seems like everybody wants our vote,” he said. “But once elected, candidates seem to forget about us. …Why should we as a community support some people who really promise everything but never deliver?”

A wide-open race

When asked by CalMatters how they have connected with Latino voters, the leading U.S. Senate candidates pointed to their outreach efforts, endorsements and track record.

Schiff and Porter have both met with Latino business owners and leaders in Southern California, the Central Valley and the Bay area, holding most events in San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Diego, Fresno or nearby areas, according to their campaigns.

Both Schiff’s and Porter’s campaigns pointed to their advocacy in Congress for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, their fight against corporate interests and support for equitable health care.

Along with Lee — whose spokesperson did not respond to CalMatters’ inquiry for this story — they are all co-sponsors of the House version of the “Registry Act,” which would allow some undocumented immigrants to qualify for lawful status.

Schiff’s campaign highlighted his support for expanded child tax credits, affordable housing, clean energy and more as well as his role leading the first impeachment trial against former President Donald Trump. He also introduced the Head Start Expansion and Improvement Act, which would invest billions in providing services to children from low-income families.

Porter’s campaign also noted she pushed for more language assistance for non-English speaking voters and advocated for free COVID-19 testing for all. She was also the first Senate candidate to launch her campaign website in multiple languages including Spanish, her campaign said.

Lexi Reese, a Democratic candidate who is barely registering in polls, said her background as a business owner helps her understand the struggles of small businesses. She said she is the only fluent Spanish speaker in the race and conducted listening tours in both languages.

A spokesperson for Eric Early, a top GOP contender, said that Latino voters he spoke to want a lower cost of living, tougher regulations on violent crimes and a stop to “the indoctrination of our children in schools” and “the flood of illegal immigration and fentanyl across the southern border.” He also touted his lawsuit against the Santa Barbara Unified School District for diversity training, which was thrown out in federal court.

Republican Steve Garvey, the L.A. Dodgers legend who entered the race last month, did not respond to a CalMatters’ inquiry.

While Latino advocacy groups haven’t announced or don’t plan endorsements, some notable community leaders have made up their minds.

Schiff, who has received dozens of endorsements from Latino lawmakers and leaders, gained support from state Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and U.S. Rep. Nanette Barragán, chairperson of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. Porter’s campaign stressed her support from nearly a dozen Latino leaders, including U.S. Rep. and former Long Beach mayor Robert Garcia, as well as Eddie Martinez, executive director of Latino Equality Alliance and mayor of Huntington Park. Lee also received endorsements from Dolores Huerta, longtime activist and co-founder of United Farm Workers.

Rosalinda Avitia, 73, listens to organizers as they review voter registration information in Tulare on Nov. 1, 2023. Photo by Zaydee Sanchez for CalMatters

But despite the months-long outreach by some campaigns, a sizable portion of Latino voters are still undecided, polls show. That’s partly because none of the top candidates have been on a statewide ballot and therefore have low name recognition, some experts say.

“I don’t think that any of the candidates come with a natural advantage,” Baldassare said. “(Schiff) has been high-profile in Washington, but that doesn’t mean he’s high-profile with the California voters.”

Additionally, campaigns must expand beyond immigration as a top issue, which is a “relic of the past,” Madrid said. A fast-growing portion of the electorate are U.S.-born Latinos who are not as motivated by the issue, and polls have shown that the economy, inflation and joblessness — not immigration — are consistently the top issue among Latinos, he said.

“How do you have the largest ethnic group in the state with the lowest voter turnout rates when they are telling you … that the No. 1 issue they have is jobs and the economy, and yet, all the Latino advocacy groups are talking about is immigration?”

The Nov. 4 forum was focused almost exclusively on immigration. Madrid argues that while the issue was important, it shouldn’t be all there is.

Fatima Flores, a spokesperson for the coalition that hosted the forum, said it was to “uplift the intersections of other issues within immigration” so members could “walk away informed and knowledgeable.”

And Angelica Salas, the coalition’s executive director, said it wants to see a “torch bearer” on immigration issues among the Senate candidates seeking to succeed the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who Salas deemed a “vanguard” of immigration reform.

“Yes, they are all supportive,” Salas said of top Democrats in the race. “But we are looking for the leader who is going to advance this cause, but more importantly, is going to finally be part of the leadership that’s going to get immigration reform over the finish line.”

Arana said he is glad candidates have been out engaging Latino voters. But they must make sure the outreach is consistent and the message is on point, he said, pointing to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ win in the California presidential primary in 2020.

Sanders proposed debt-free public colleges and universal health care, which resonated with young Latino voters, Arana said.

“He opened offices in areas where campaigns … normally wouldn’t,” he said. “Not only did he open that office, he hired people from the community, so it almost made it seem like it was a partnership to change the country.”

Clarissa Renteria, 25, at a voter registration event in downtown Tulare on Nov. 1, 2023. Photo by Zaydee Sanchez for CalMatters.

As for now, things have mostly been quiet in the city of Tulare.

At the local voter registration drive and Día de Los Muertos celebration hosted by several Latino advocacy groups, including the League of United Latin American Citizens, two dozen residents showed up, some drawn by the free food. Half a block away, a train whooshed by every few minutes on the railway track that sliced through the city, the blaring horn in contrast with the sleepy downtown.

“I thought it was not real,” Clarissa Renteria said outside the event venue, joking about when she first heard about it. Such events are rare in Tulare, she said. No one has knocked on her door for the Senate candidates, and she has seen no signs of campaign outreach in the area.

“We don’t really have a lot of that around here,” she said. “But I feel like as soon as you get other people who are also Mexican, like myself, to see: ‘Hey, I’m talking about these issues,’ maybe they’ll get more engaged. I think that’s what we need to see.”

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CalMatters.org is a nonprofit, nonpartisan media venture explaining California policies and politics.