Let’s get this out of the way. To my friends on the other side of the fence, we’re gonna probably not talk much for the next few months until after November 8. Four and eight years ago, some friendships were strained. I do apologize in advance as I believe in math and science. I get my news from multiple independent media sites and I fact check the sources. In other words, I read a lot. I don’t watch Fox News, or any TV news for that matter and I don’t listen to Rush, Glen, Bill or Sean on AM hate talk radio.

National:

As of tonight, the November presidential race or what I call “The Road To 270” is on. Don’t get confused about national polling numbers as these are irrelevant. It’s all about the Electoral College and getting to a minimum 270 Electoral College votes. You and I don’t vote for President, as the presidential race is not a national popular vote (just ask Al Gore). Technically, the voters of each state elect their respective Electoral College in a state by state “winner takes all” basis, except for Maine and Nebraska. In other words, whichever presidential candidate gets 50% + 1 of the total California votes gets all of California’s 55 Electoral College votes. The losing candidate gets 0.

Let’s review the math. The Electoral College is made up of 435 Congressional seats (the current number of U.S. Congress seats), 100 Senate seats (two for each state), and an additional 3 for the District of Columbia. That makes a total of 538 potential Electoral College votes up for grabs. Divide that number in half (538 / 2 = 269) and we would have a dead tie for United State President, hence the magic number 270 (50% + 1) gives the Presidential candidate a victory.

And here’s where Donald Trump doesn’t just have an image problem; he has a gigantic math problem. Before a single vote has been cast in the November 8th Presidential election, Hillary Clinton should have a 242 to 102 Electoral College head start against Trump. That means Ms. Clinton may only have to win Florida to become the next President.

The following states have voted Democratic or Republican the past six consecutive presidential election cycles (1992 – 2012) and will probably vote that way again:

The trend is your friend. That’s 18 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have voted Democratic in the past six consecutive national elections.

You can play along with the interactive Electoral College Map.

I’ll give the Republicans the additional red leaning states of Idaho (4), West Virginia (5), Arkansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Missouri (10), Tennessee (11), Arizona (11) and Georgia (16) (cow country and Confederate States vote red like their necks). Now Mr. Trump has 180 electoral votes with only ten battleground states in play: New Hampshire (4), New Mexico (5), Nevada (6), Iowa (6), Colorado (9), Indiana (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18) and good ole’ Florida (29).

Ms. Clinton should take New Hampshire (4), as they have voted Democratic in five of the previous six Presidential elections. As of today, New Mexico (5), Nevada (6) and Colorado (9) are trending blue. That would bring Ms. Clinton’s Electoral College total to 266. Let’s do the math here: 266/270 = 98.5%. I’ll remind you that you only need 270 Electoral College votes to become the next President of the United States and the Democratic nominee is well on her way to victory. Also note that the Democrats have won the popular vote in five of the previous six Presidential elections.

If Ms. Clinton takes Florida, it’s over. It don’t matter what happens to those remaining battleground states. Mr. Trump would have to sweep all six battleground states (Iowa, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio and Florida) which is highly unlikely. Mr. Trump doesn’t even have organized campaign staff or a ground game in place in most of these states as he was relying on his ego, crazy Twitter insults and free media during the Republican primaries.

I can’t stress the importance of a solid ground game to a successful political outcome. It’s not just the right candidate with a strong message that resonates with voters. You need volunteers to neighborhood canvass, phone bank, fundraise and most importantly – GOTV (Get Out The Vote). The Democrats already have regional ground games in place nationwide and Trump doesn’t. It’s still a coin toss whether the Republican machine will get behind Trump or run a third candidate. Wanna take a guess which party will be putting huge resources into Florida?

No hanging chads this election.

I won’t even go into Mr. Trump’s negatives with women, Hispanics, blacks and Muslims. Is there anyone out there Donald Trump hasn’t insulted, including the Pope, most of the media and many from his own party? It’s as if the Republicans didn’t read the post-2012 election autopsy, The GOP (Growth & Opportunity Project), an honest evaluation that stated the Republicans are faring poorly with women, gays and immigrants and must do more outreach to those voting blocs.

Being an obnoxious junior high school bully may be cute with the average angry, conservative, older, white voter, but it’s downright disturbing to the most of the country and other nations. Not since 1933 Germany have we seen such a candidate rise to the top of his party.

As I stated above, I believe in math, so when Trump says he’s gonna compete in California and New York… naaah.

Q: When was the last time the Republican presidential nominee took California?

A: George H.W. Bush in 1988. Since then, California and its 55 electoral votes have gone solid blue.

California voters are now 40% Latino. How many of these Latinos do you think will be voting for the man who wants to build a wall along the Mexican border, bill the Mexican government for it and deport 11 million illegal immigrants?

Q: When was the last time the Republican presidential nominee took New York?

A: Ronald Reagan in 1984. Since then, New York and its 29 electoral votes have gone solid blue.

We are an evolving country. Back in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was elected President, the voters were 84% white. Today, it’s down to 70% white voters. That’s a huge swing in voter demographics.

About the only path to victory for Trump is to say “forgetaboutit” to the two blue coasts and concentrate on the Rust Belt, especially the no information angry white voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Ohio. Faux News and Rush will tell ‘em how to think and vote.

United States Senate:

With Senator Barbara Boxer retiring after serving 24 years in office a slew of names came forth. Two Democrats, Kamala Harris and Loretta Sanchez are leading the polls for the June primary election. Remember, it’s now the top two vote getters from the primary that move on to the November general election, regardless of political party. So it’s likely that we will have two Democrats facing off for the open U.S. Senate seat come November.

Congress:

Erin Schrode (Schro-dee) is a (now) 25-year old woman who is running for California 2nd District Congress against incumbent Jared Huffman.

While her odds are long, ya gotta appreciate her spunk and the fact she is telling everybody that no woman under the age of 30 has ever been elected to Congress. Personally, I’d recommend she get elected to a school board, city council or County Board of Supervisors to get some experience under her belt. Note: Ms. Schrode is someone to watch a couple of election cycles from now… or on a media outlet.

Back to reality as the November general will have the top two primary vote getters, which will be Democratic Congressman Jared Huffman against the token Republican, Dale Mensing of Redway.

State:

State Assemblyman Jim Wood is running unopposed so I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict a huge victory for him.

County:

1st District Supervisor Rex Bohn is also running unopposed, so I’m gonna make a daring call that Rex does better than his previous 2012 election, when he only got 63% of the vote in a three-way contest.

Over in the 2nd District Supervisor race, John Hardin (AKA: “Mountain Man John”) recently opined about Bud Rogers, who is running for County Supervisor against incumbent Estelle Fennell, “Bud Rogers, on the other hand, revealed himself as a true man-of-the-people at last Wednesday’s debate. His sentences may run on for weeks without reaching conclusion, but you can tell by listening to him that Bud Rogers smokes a lot of really good weed. We need someone who smokes a lot of good weed on the Board of Supervisors.”

Good god. No! No! No! The very last thing we need on the Humboldt County Board of Supervisors is an unemployed, stoner, slacker. The Regressives tried that back in 2014 and thankfully a majority of the voters agreed with me. Like certain folks say, it does come down to values. I have faith in the 2nd District voters this June.

3rd District Supervisor: Mike Wilson vs. Uri Driscoll. Sorry, the Arcata Illuminati have already decided this race.

Finally, if you don’t vote, you can’t complain for the next four years.