Three years ago, it wasn’t such a potential liability for a California Republican in Congress to be anti-abortion. Now, several of them are in competitive races to keep their seats.

Four signed a brief in 2021 urging the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn the federal constitutional right to the procedure. Three of them co-sponsored a bill aiming to give equal protection under the Constitution to “preborn” life, which it stated started at fertilization. The legislation, which was backed by 166 House GOP members but never made it out of a committee, was essentially an attempted national abortion ban with no exceptions.

By this spring, those California incumbents had all walked away from the bill. Several of those in tight races say that they don’t support a federal ban, but that each state should decide abortion policy.

Democrats say it’s flip-flopping. Republicans say it’s a political overreach. They’re both calling the other side liars.

Buoyed by strong support for a state constitutional amendment guaranteeing abortion rights in 2022 and polls showing Republicans nationally losing ground on the issue, Democrats are banking on abortion as they seek to flip or hold onto several California districts in their bid to win back the U.S. House majority.

They have help from abortion rights activists. Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California spent nearly $1.5 million this month on digital and mail ads targeting three of the state’s toss-up districts, attacking the incumbents as anti-abortion.

“A lot of these candidates … really all of them, have tried rewriting their records or reframing it, but their votes, previous comments and statements speak for themselves,” said Jennifer Wonnacott, the group’s spokesperson.

It’s a revival of Democrats’ play in the November 2022 elections, after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade that June: Democrats called out Republican incumbents for dodging the issue or amending their anti-abortion stances.

In the tight California races, the Democrats lost, but say there’s good reason to try again. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election, having a Democratic Congress is key for her pledge to write Roe v. Wade into federal law. If former President Donald Trump wins, or if Republicans retain their House majority, activists say they fear Congress will attempt to restrict abortion in federal law, potentially upending California’s state constitutional right to the procedure.

They say the numbers are on their side. Across six toss-up U.S. House districts in November 2022, the state constitutional amendment on abortion got larger shares of the vote than the incumbent. Democrats have focused on the incumbents’ votes on a funding bill that would have limited access to the abortion pill and a bill to require doctors to rescue infants born alive during an attempted abortion — a rare occurrence — that critics called a way to intimidate abortion providers.

Republicans say Democrats are unlikely to get much traction on the broader abortion issue. California already allows it until the fetus can survive outside the womb, generally considered 24 weeks, and the GOP says voters are more interested in the economy.

Republicans also accused Democrats of mischaracterizing or exaggerating their positions. One ad for Democrat Rudy Salas suggests Rep. David Valadao opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest. The Republican was a co-sponsor of the “life at conception” bill in 2022. This year at a debate, he said he supports exceptions for rape or incest.

Representatives for Valadao and other Republican incumbents did not respond to CalMatters inquiries about their views. Neither did Salas’ campaign.

“Democrats are lying about California House Republicans’ positions on abortion because they cannot win on their disastrous handling of inflation and crime,” Ben Petersen, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement. The committee is among outside groups that have spent heavily in key California races.

Derek Tran, a Democrat running in California’s 45th Congressional District addresses canvassers at a Knock for Democracy event in Fullerton on Oct. 12, 2024. Photo by Carlin Stiehl for CalMatters

The districts — spanning the Central Valley, Orange County, the Inland Empire and outskirts of Los Angeles — are among the most competitive races in the country. According to a September poll, the candidates are separated by 5 percentage points or less, with one district virtually tied.

In the survey, researchers asked voters the first word that came to mind when they heard a candidate’s name. In the 13th, 45th and 47th districts, “pro-life” and “pro-choice” made the list.

“The fact that abortion is coming up unprompted at a relatively high rate in half these districts shows that it could potentially drive voters to the polls, and it’s certainly framing the way voters are thinking about these competitive congressional races,” said Christian Grose, a political science professor at the University of Southern California who is part of the polling team.

Still, it’s not certain that the abortion issue will tip the scales toward Democrats.

Republican incumbents in several of the districts won or held onto their seats two years ago despite a Democratic edge among registered voters. Since then, the GOP has picked up thousands of new voters in those districts.

And not all purple districts are the same.

In the 47th District in Orange County, where he’s running to succeed fellow Democrat Katie Porter, state Sen. Dave Min said he’s “running hard on abortion as one of our baseline issues” against Republican Scott Baugh.

In the neighboring 45th District, reproductive rights activists this month are knocking doors for Democrat Derek Tran, who is trying to unseat Republican Rep. Michelle Steel. Tran told CalMatters abortion is a “number one” issue in the district.

Some 300 miles to the north in the 13th District in the heart of the Central Valley, some Democratic voters and volunteers said abortion is a touchier subject. While the issue has galvanized young women, misinformation and rhetoric has pulled some “religious voters that would vote Democratic, to the right,” said Jared McCreary, a volunteer for Adam Gray’s congressional campaign.

At the edge of an event focused on Latino voters at a Merced park, two middle-aged women said their Catholic faith gave them mixed views about Democrats’ platform on abortion, but they remained loyal to the party over economic policy.

A relative, Geovanni Vera, joined them. The 21-year-old UC Merced student, who called himself pro-choice, chalked up the difference in opinion to generational divides, and said abortion rights would drive young voters like his classmates to the polls.

Angela Romero-Waterman, 59, said when she knocks on doors for Democrats, she discusses the separation of church and state with neighbors who are on the fence about abortion. A social worker, she and her partner said they were concerned not just about abortion rights, but an erosion of women’s rights overall.

U.S. Rep. John Duarte speaks during a Republican rally for the midterm election in Madera on Oct. 8, 2022. Photo by Rahul Lal, CalMatters

The incumbent, Republican John Duarte, has said he’s a moderate on abortion, and said in a debate in 2022 that he supports the right to an abortion up to three months, or 12 weeks. This year, he told reporters that he and Trump — whose public statements on abortion have varied widely — are both “pro-choice,” and that states should get to decide abortion regulations.

Gray, who lost to Duarte by fewer than 600 votes in 2022, said he would vote to pass a federal law guaranteeing abortion rights.

“All this other nonsense about, ‘Well, I’m pro-choice, because states get to have a choice, that’s just lying to people,” Gray said in an interview.

A spokesperson for Duarte’s campaign did not respond to multiple interview requests.

CalMatters surveyed candidates in six swing districts about federal abortion laws. Two Republicans — Rep. Ken Calvert and Baugh — said they believe abortion should be left up to the states. The Democrats who responded — George Whitesides, Will Rollins, Tran and Min — said they would vote to codify a federal right to abortion if elected.

Two years ago, seven GOP House members from California co-sponsored the life-at-conception bill. This year, only three did; Steel was the only one in a tough race to do so, signing on nearly a year after it was introduced, during the March primary campaign. Two days after she won, she withdrew that support, saying that she backs in vitro fertilization. Now, her campaign ads highlight IVF and other women’s issues.

Tran called it an attempt to “erase the history that she signed on and co-authored” the bill. Steel did not respond to multiple requests for an interview or the survey.

At a canvassing event with Knock for Democracy in Placentia, Tran emphasized Steel’s record to canvassers — many of whom traveled from neighboring Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

“It’s definitely important to me,” said canvasser Jamie Hellebuick, a 26-year-old graduate student at UCLA, “because it’s people trying to control my body because of their own worldview.”

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