A year ago, a ballot measure to raise the statewide minimum wage to $18 seemed poised for an easy win in California, where costs have skyrocketed, affordability is a key concern and many of the state’s biggest cities already require businesses to pay close to that much.

But weeks before California decides on a measure that would do that, voter support appears to have fallen significantly amid heightened concerns about the economy that opponents are stressing, and a relatively quiet campaign in favor of Proposition 32.

A poll released Wednesday night by the Public Policy Institute of California shows just 44% of likely voters backing the measure, which would raise the minimum wage in January from the scheduled $16.50 to $18, with a delay for small employers. That’s a decline from 50% of those polled in September, and more than two-thirds surveyed last November who said they supported raising the minimum wage until it reaches $18.

The change in voter sentiment could reflect broader concerns about the state’s economy and the jump in costs for housing and food that hammered households over the past three years.

Despite signs of a resilient economy that continues to add jobs and falling inflation, Americans continue to remember lower prices from before the pandemic, and have consistently reported feeling pessimistic about the economy this year in a mismatch experts have dubbed a “vibecession.”

Californians are no different: In the new poll, the economy is by far the issue that respondents said is the most important facing the state, with a solid majority of likely voters saying they expect bad economic times in the next year.

Business groups opposed to raising the minimum wage, which include the California Chamber of Commerce, restaurant and grocers’ groups, and the agricultural industry, are seizing on the concerns. A digital ad released by opponents this week shows a shopper at a grocery store saying the measure would cause prices to increase, while another says she “can’t take it anymore.”

The National Federation of Independent Business, another opponent of minimum wage hikes, also is running radio ads saying the measure would worsen inflation, “hurt small businesses and harm their ability to grow and add jobs.” In response to questions about inflation falling, spokesperson Anthony Malandra said the group’s members still list inflation as a top concern.

Proponents of the wage hike dismissed the ads’ claims, but acknowledged it’s a powerful message this election year. The pro-Prop. 32 campaign, said spokesperson Angelo Greco, is also running digital ads and sending text blasts to turn out voters in big cities that are more likely to reliably support the measure.

Proponents say the measure could give raises to about two million California workers, at a time when costs are so high even single Californians with no children need to earn at least $27 an hour to be self-sufficient, according to researchers at MIT.

“While it’s the same argument that we have always heard (from businesses) the last 20 years, it resonates more when people have seen the cost of goods and services go up,” said Jane Kim, state director for the Working Families Party, a progressive group supporting the ballot measure. “That’s the softening in support that you’re seeing. We are concerned, and that’s why we are reaching out to voters that we think naturally will support an increase to the minimum wage.”

Proponents pointed to recent studies showing the state’s $20 fast-food minimum wage, which began in April, had little effect on employment in that industry, and only raised menu prices by about 3.7%.

California did have slower growth than the nation this year, but Jerry Nickelsburg, an economist who directs the UCLA Anderson Forecast, said that’s unusual and he’s predicted the state’s economy will again grow faster next year.

The state’s unemployment rate is 5.3%, higher than the nation’s 4.1%. Nickelsburg says that’s only in small part influenced by recent minimum wage hikes. Unemployment in California, he said, is driven mostly by downsizing in tech and entertainment, higher wages and reduced reliance on delivery drivers since the pandemic-era peak of online ordering and two stormy winters that put many farm laborers out of work.

“All of those (factors) will dissipate over time,” he said.

Mark Baldassare, statewide survey director for the Public Policy Institute, said he suspects likely voters who were surveyed are confused by the relative lack of a vocal campaign for the measure.

After pouring $10 million into qualifying the measure for the ballot in 2022, the measure’s author Joe Sanberg, a startup investor and anti-poverty advocate, resisted some labor advocates’ calls to withdraw the measure this year. But he still appeared to take a step back from formal campaigning, telling CalMatters in August that the message of workers needing higher pay to afford living in California would sell itself naturally.

He closed the proposition’s campaign account earlier this year. Aside from money in a campaign account tied to Los Angeles City Councilmember Kevin de León, who supports the proposition along with two other measures, the measure hardly raised any funds this year until Sanberg donated about $100,000 this week. (Groups opposing the measure have raised more than $700,000 this year.)

The ballot, which for the first time this year lists supporters and opponents of propositions, does not include the name of any organizations pushing for Prop. 32. The state Chamber of Commerce, Restaurant Association and Grocers Association are listed as opponents.

“Here’s the thing about ballot propositions and initiatives in particular: People are cautious about voting ‘yes’ on them,” Baldassare said. “If it’s on the ballot, the question is, why? Who put it there? Who’s supporting it?”

A spokesperson for the Secretary of State’s office told CalMatters that Sanberg declined to list himself or another group as the supporters. Sanberg did not respond to a request for comment.

Greco called the campaign “more of a grassroots effort.” But the quiet campaign drew criticism from a statewide union group. In 2016, unions were instrumental in muscling political support for a series of minimum wage increases that made California the first state in the nation to require $15 an hour.

“We support an increase in the minimum wage,” said Lorena Gonzalez, leader of the California Labor Federation, which endorsed the measure. “We still support Prop. 32. But we’re disappointed there’s been very little activity from the campaign.”

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