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Communities up and down the California coast may be in for one doozy of a winter as a “Super El Niño” threatens to bring big, destructive storms, widespread coastal flooding and the highest sea levels ever recorded in the region.

McGuire. | Screenshot.

That was the warning issued this week by climate scientists and meteorologists participating in a virtual town hall hosted by California Senator and U.S. Congressional candidate Mike McGuire. 

There are currently better than four-in-five odds that the current warming phenomenon in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean will trigger a “very strong” weather pattern from October through December, one that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). 

“The Super El Niño has a real potential for larger and more destructive storms, flooding events, ocean-based heat waves — which we’re already starting to see off the Pacific — and enhanced summertime monsoonal moisture that’s coming up from the Pacific, which can bring lightning to fire-prone regions across the state and right here in Northern California,” McGuire said in his introductory remarks.

Dr. Daniel Swain, whom McGuire described as one of the nation’s top climate scientists, explained that temporary (if escalating) warming trends in the equatorial Pacific Ocean can produce large-scale climate effects around the world for months following the peak of the event. This year’s version of the phenomenon, known as El Niño, is extraordinary.

“What we’re seeing right now is something that is fairly remarkable from a historical perspective,” Swain said. The biggest impacts, which likely won’t arrive for a couple of months, are likely to hit Southern California the hardest, but even here in Humboldt County we’re likely to see significant coastal flooding, especially during strong storms and king tides.

“It’s very strong, and could even become, potentially, the strongest on record,” Swain said, regarding the Super El Niño. “In fact, that is what some of the best predictive models are currently indicating is a distinct possibility. So we may be seeing an event that we haven’t really seen before in living memory in California.”

Dr. Mark Merrifield, a scientist and professor with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said the one thing we can count on is higher sea levels.

“They are already starting to increase,” he said, referring not just to the slow and steady rise caused by climate change but also an anomalous surge tied to this weather phenomenon.

“We can expect [that] by fall, winter this year, we should be seeing sea levels far above the average seasonal cycle going forward,” Merrifield said. “[W]e’re expecting likely the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast.”

El Niño events, like their counterparts, La Niñas, are cyclical climate patterns. Strong ones in 1982-83 and 1997-98 caused abnormally wet winters and large waves here in California. 

Dr. Merrifield noted that, due to “a sort of unlucky coincidence,” the Pacific’s multi-year tidal cycle is scheduled to peak around Christmastime, joining forces with the most serious impacts of El Niño. These combined phenomena are likely to generate large waves, extra-high sea levels and heavy rainfall, causing “considerable coastal flooding, intrusion of groundwater and coastal erosion.”

If there’s any good news, McGuire said, it’s that California voters recently passed Prop. 4, a $10 billion climate bond designed to help communities prepare for floods, coastal erosion, wildfire, sea level rise, extreme heat and other climate-driven disasters.

“At the end of the day, we can’t control the weather,” McGuire said, “but what we can control is how prepared we are before the weather hits. And that means continuing to invest in infrastructure, supporting our local communities and making sure Californians have the latest, most accurate information they need before potential disaster strikes.”

To that end, the town hall heard from Nate Ortiz, assistant director of planning and preparedness here at the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES). He noted that the state has a lot of resources available, and he encouraged people to sign up for emergency alerts. (Humboldt County residents can do that here.) Ortiz also recommended preparing emergency supply kits and a “go bag” that contains key documents, such as passports, social security cards and birth certificates.

You can watch the entire town hall event, including a Q-and-A with the panelists, below.