###

If you’ve kept up with national news or spent any time on social media in recent months, you’ve almost certainly been inundated with warnings of the “super” El Niño brewing in the Pacific Ocean. The storm system is expected to be one of the strongest on record, with the potential to bring destructive rainstorms and flooding to much of the West Coast in the coming months.

While Southern California typically bears the brunt of El Niño’s impact, it’s unclear how the climate pattern will affect the North Coast.

“It’s kind of an even split whether we get really wet, normal or drier conditions,” said Danny Schmiegel, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service (NWS) office in Eureka. “We could have above-average rainfall, but it’s definitely not weighted in that direction because our weather’s a bit different than it is down in Southern or even Central California.”

Still, Humboldt County officials are bracing for heavy rainfall and significant inland and coastal flooding, especially during the king tides, which are projected to bring higher-than-average tides to the region between November and January. The Humboldt County Office of Emergency Services (OES) has a series of public meetings coming up in November to prepare low-lying, flood-prone communities. Meanwhile, the county’s Public Works Department is scrambling to finish road repairs and other infrastructure projects aimed at reinforcing vulnerable areas along the coast before the rainy season.

What is El Niño?

El Niño-Southern Oscillation events occur every two to seven years when above-average sea surface temperatures occur in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, decreasing cold water upwelling and disrupting “normal” global weather patterns.

When water temperatures become “exceptionally” high the event is referred to as a “super” El Niño. On Sept. 29, the average daily sea surface temperature in the region of the Pacific Ocean where the El Niño develops hit a record high of 85.73 degrees, according to preliminary data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Climate scientists largely attribute the rise in oceans surface temperature to climate change, which has amplified El Niño and La Niña intensity around the globe in recent decades.

Daniel Swain, a renowned weather and climate scientist with the California Institute for Water Resources, is predicting that this winter could be one of the wettest on record in California. 

“[According to] the multi-model ensemble, [the chances of] this winter’s precipitation being among the wettest fifth of all winters [on record] is on the order of 75%,” Swain said in a video posted to his YouTube channel last month. “That is an astonishing number. It is very high, and it doesn’t appear to be relegated to one model. It appears to be true for essentially the entire California coast.”

El Niño is already making waves on the West Coast — literally. A slow-moving Kelvin wave is heading up the west coast of South America toward California. The ocean phenomenon, which forecasters expect to hit Southern California in the coming days, could raise sea levels by half a foot or more in some areas. It’s not immediately clear whether the Kelvin wave will have a noticeable effect on the North Coast, but if it does, meteorologists will be able to see it coming days, if not weeks, ahead of time.

El Niño’s warmer-than-average ocean waters are also driving some tropical sea creatures farther north than ever. For the first time in recorded history, olive ridley sea turtles are nesting on Southern California beaches, with at least two recorded cases in Orange County. Last month, a highly venomous yellow-bellied sea snake, native to tropical parts of the Pacific and Indian oceans, washed ashore in the same area. 

No tropical species have washed up on local beaches, though an unusually high number of marine mammal deaths have been recorded this year.

Jacob Boomsma, another meteorologist with the NWS office in Eureka, was hesitant to speculate about El Niño impacts on the North Coast. He predicted that low-lying coastal communities (Elk River, Fields Landing, Freshwater, King Salmon, Loleta, among others) will see flooding in the same spots as usual. 

“This last year was an average year of precipitation for Humboldt County, and we did have some flooding impacts throughout the winter,” he said, referring to the countywide flood event just before Christmas and the historic floods that impacted King Salmon over New Year’s weekend. “Even in an average year, we could have some flooding impacts in those flood-prone areas and along the mainstem rivers as well. Essentially, if you experience flooding every year or every couple of years, that’s something you should prepare for.”

Boomsma was particularly concerned about coastal flooding during the king tides, which are projected to hit the North Coast at Nov. 24-26, Dec. 23-25 and Jan. 21-22.

“The storms that we do get, especially if they correspond with the king tide times, we may get some really high tides,” he said, noting that Fields Landing and King Salmon are likely to bear the brunt of the impact. “If we get high surf along with that coastal flooding, that could be more impactful more broadly. … High surf is actually really impactful to coastal flooding impacts, especially more broadly around Humboldt Bay.”

Preparing for the Big Storm

Humboldt OES has four informational meetings planned next month to help vulnerable communities prepare. The meetings will focus on pre-flooding preparedness, evacuation planning and ways to stay informed during an emergency. Representatives from the Sheriff’s Office, PG&E, Caltrans, Humboldt Community Organizations Active in Disaster (COAD) and other state agencies will be in attendance. If you can’t make it in person, the meetings will be streamed on Facebook Live. 

At next week’s meeting, the Humboldt County Board of Supervisors will look at funding options to bolster the local sandbag supply. The county Sandbag Policy recommends that the county “have at least 100,000 sandbags on hand for public infrastructure protection prior to each winter season.” You can read the full staff report here. 

In the meantime, local OES officials are urging residents to “Know Your Zone” on Genasys, the county’s evacuation management platform, and to sign up for Humboldt Alert. 

“We’re hoping to hit as many people as possible with that messaging,” said HCSO Lieutenant Joshua McCall, who currently manages the county’s OES program. He also urged residents to visit the Humboldt OES website for more preparedness tips and to learn how to build a personal emergency plan. “We have a myriad of different [events] we deal with, from fires to floods to earthquakes to tsunamis and a lot of preparedness stuff [applies] across the board. If you’re prepared for an earthquake, you’re probably also prepared for other natural disaster-type scenarios.”

McCall’s primary focus is educating and preparing vulnerable communities before disaster strikes. Humboldt OES will help coordinate resources during the emergency response, he said, but staff won’t be going door to door to provide residents with direct services. 

“I think there’s a belief or a misnomer that the OES’s responsibility during those instances is to provide direct service [to residents], but our role is to coordinate … support for the county as a whole, and obviously those affected areas,” he said. “We have nonprofit partners and other community partners to help fill that gap. … The American Red Cross can stand up shelters and provide more immediate support in a quicker fashion [than we can]. Organizations like Humboldt COAD can help residents … with more long-term recovery and [individualized] guidance.”

Humboldt COAD is still helping King Salmon residents recover from the January king tide event that flooded dozens of homes. Nick Bown-Crawford, executive director of Humboldt COAD, said the nonprofit is helping residents address lingering flood damage and preparing for the next storm. 

“We’re looking at immediate options we can provide to the community within a very short period of time,” Bown-Crawford told the Outpost. “A couple months isn’t enough time to build out big infrastructure to protect the community, but we can, for example, look at what it would cost to repair tide gates and recommendations on storm drain kind of infrastructure improvements. Where we’re really focusing right now is at the household level.”

The COAD team is helping King Salmon residents field insurance questions and create a photographic inventory of their homes to make it easier to file a claim if it becomes necessary down the line. Bown-Crawford acknowledged that flood insurance is unattainable for many coastal homeowners, but encouraged those who are interested in applying to do so immediately.

“We’re in this window right now where if folks are considering either changing their policy or shopping for a new policy altogether, those waiting periods embedded in each policy are usually around 30 to 90 days, and we’re quickly approaching that window of when you would be able to make those claims if we see a strong December peak from El Niño,” he said. “We’re also working with renters to make sure that they know renters’ insurance is very affordable.”

More information about obtaining flood insurance can be found here and here.

Humboldt COAD is expanding its reach to flood-prone areas across the county and partnering with community organizations to help people prepare. Bown-Crawford encouraged residents to have an evacuation plan in place before the storm hits, as well as a “go bag” with essential items and medications. 

“And for families with kids, what do you do with your kids if there’s an early pickup?” he asked. “What do comfort items look like in your home or in your car if you do have to evacuate? We’re also connecting folks who have pets and livestock with local groups that can help with that as well.”

The Humboldt County Department of Public Works is doing its part to prepare for the storm. Hank Seemann, the department’s deputy director, said staff is “racing to finish” several construction projects to repair storm-damaged county roads and bolster county infrastructure before El Niño hits. 

In a recent interview with the Outpost, Seemann expressed serious concern about flooding in both inland and coastal areas of the county.

“We’re already starting to see the elevated ocean levels as some of the effects of the conditions around the equator start propagating up the coast of the Pacific,” he said. “It’s really challenging because we already have elevated ocean levels associated with global climate change and global sea level rise, and then having these elevated effects from the El Niño on top of that … there’s the potential for large storm events to generate storm surge.”

“There’s going to be a higher probability of above-average rainfall, even as much as 150 % to 250% of normal,” he continued, referring to the data provided in Swain’s video mentioned above. “That doesn’t guarantee that there’ll be significant flood damage. It really depends on the duration of rainfall, [and] the interval between rain events and the intensity of the rain events. It raises the odds to have an extremely wet winter.”

Road repair crews spent the summer clearing out ditches and replacing culverts to get county roads ready for winter. The county is working with a couple of Ferndale landowners to repair Meridian Road at Reese Creek, which accumulated so much sediment the creek started running into the road. Crews are also installing new signs on flood-prone Elk River and Berta roads to indicate how deep the water is while the county works on a long-term solution.

“It’s just really tough when there are roads in the floodplain, and when the floodplain’s been altered or the channel capacity has been reduced by sediment,” Seemann said.

Redwood Creek, which runs through the heart of Orick, is yet another concern. Over the years, Redwood Creek has become choked by vegetation and sediment deposits that restrict the channel’s capacity, increasing local flood risk. (A few years ago, the Outpost did a deep dive into this issue. You can read more about it here.) A project to restore the estuary to reduce flood risk and improve fish habitat is in the early stages, but that’s still years out. To address immediate risk, Seemann is hoping to send a crew up to clear some of the vegetation before the rainy season hits. 

“It has to be done carefully to balance the habitat quality with the needs for  flood conveyance,” he said.

There are a few areas around Humboldt Bay that are particularly concerning, Seemann said. Last winter, the bay overtopped an elevated section of the railroad that runs along Vance Avenue on the Samoa Peninsula and washed out some of the gravel supporting the tracks. The Great Redwood Trail Agency, which manages the railroad between Sonoma and Humboldt counties, did some emergency repairs to stabilize the ballast, but Seemann is concerned that there will be “extensive damage” if the bay waters exceed a foot above normal.

“One of the co-benefits of the Great Redwood Trail vision … is as those trails are developed, the former railroad [will be] improved and adapted to be more resilient to the flood risks,” he noted. “We were able to do that with the Bay Trail between Eureka and Arcata, and there’s a plan to do that going south from Eureka to King Salmon, Fields Landing and College of the Redwoods. When those projects are developed, the levee will be improved, but that’s still a few years out.”

Like his OES colleagues, Seemann urged residents to prepare for the storm well before it hits and attend the upcoming informational meetings. 

###

Community meeting schedule:

Group 1 – King Salmon, Fields Landing and Elk River Valley Location:

Humboldt Hill Grange, 5845 Humboldt Hill Road, Eureka, CA 95503 Date: November 4, 2026 Time: 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.

Group 2 – Freshwater, Jacoby Creek and Bayside

Location: Freshwater Grange, 49 Grange Road, Eureka, CA 95503 Date: November 12, 2026 Time: 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.

Group 3 – Ferndale 

Location: Ferndale City Hall, 834 Main Street, Ferndale, CA 95536 Date: November 17, 2026 Time: 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.

Group 4 – Big Lagoon and Orick 

Location: Orick Community Hall, 101 Swan Road, Orick, CA 95555 Date: November 18, 2026 Time: 6:00 to 8:00 p.m.

###

Additional resources:

• Humboldt COAD’s master resource list
• Humboldt OES
• Bevel Inventory Tool 
• USDA: How to Build a Go Bag